Union trouble? Potential strike? Is America slipping into a new period of friction between owners and workers?

Yes, but don't think baseball park. Think office, hospital, cockpit, shipyards.

Far away from the glare of million-dollar athletes and fat TV contracts, the nation's economic slowdown is threatening millions of ordinary workers' paychecks and jobs.

As organized labor asserts itself, potential strikes threaten, in turn, to further undermine the US recovery.

The standoff – particularly in transportation – has implications for everyone from the White House to the factory floor: A West Coast dockyard strike, for example, could halt half of US trade.

The tension comes at an unusual moment, as the economy is sputtering despite 40-year-low interest rates. With big business on the ropes financially and labor aware of weak job markets, neither side has the clear advantage.

Organized labor has weathered worse downturns, of course. But this time the slump is hitting unexpected pockets of the union movement. The result may be that, once again, some unions get squeezed harder than the overall economy.

Even state and local government workers – organized labor's bright spot during the 1990s – face uncharacteristically fierce cuts as states and cities grapple with budget shortfalls.

"Undoubtedly, before the whole thing shakes out, there will be [more] layoffs," says Daniel J. B. Mitchell, professor of management and public policy at the University of California at Los Angeles. "The public sector is certainly in distress," and airlines are "obviously being affected."

Illinois is playing host to some of labor's severest tests.

The most visible union-management conflict outside baseball lies in Chicago. There, the nation's No. 2 airline, United Airlines, is dancing a complicated minuet with its three major unions and the federal government. Last week, the carrier threatened to declare bankruptcy this fall unless its unions could agree to cost cuts in 30 days. United argues the cuts are necessary to qualify for a $1.8 billion federal bailout, available to airlines hurt by last September's terrorist attacks. Without the bailout, the company estimates it will run out of cash this fall.

The outlook remains murky because employees own 55 percent of the airline's stock. Ordinarily, ownership would make workers more amenable to concessions, labor experts say. But in this case, the unions are all waiting to see what concessions the other groups will offer.

This week, the pilots' union postponed a vote on its proposed 10 percent pay cut. Machinists argue the company already owes them $500 million in back pay. And the flight attendants' union says cuts from its lower-paid workers can't possibly make up the shortfall without cooperation from the other two groups.

"At United, things are in pretty dire straits," says Thomas Kochan, professor of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Other airlines are closely monitoring the situation, because any concessions to United would hurt their competitive situation. In the past 10 days, US Airways has filed for bankruptcy and American announced up to 7,000 layoffs. Delta, Continental, and Northwest have all announced cuts in their fall flights.

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