Missouri's very civil war for Senate

"Missouri is actually about five states in one," says the Rev. Emanuel Cleaver, a former Democratic mayor of Kansas City, attending a Carnahan rally in the city's historic 18th and Vine district.

The two major urban centers – Kansas City and St. Louis – lean Democratic, while Springfield, which is home to the Assemblies of God headquarters, is one of the most conservative spots in the country. The state's agricultural middle tends to vote GOP, as does the "boot heel" to the south, which might as well be part of Tennessee. That leaves the growing suburbs as the primary battleground. These areas used to lean Republican but have been increasingly Democratic: In his unsuccessful 2000 bid for governor, Talent failed to win his own county in suburban St. Louis.

Just how difficult it may be for one candidate to bridge the gap between these different factions becomes clear on Carnahan's recent bus tour, dubbed "Freedom, Faith, and Family." The senator starts her day at a lively rally in Kansas City attended by mostly African-Americans and union workers, where she is compared favorably to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Six hours later, at a small gathering in rural Kirksville, where a home down the street displays a confederate flag, a man presses her to consider a Constitutional amendment protecting the phrase "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance.

Carnahan has established one of the more conservative records among Senate Democrats, voting with the president more than two-thirds of the time. She was one of only 12 Democrats to vote in favor of the Bush tax cut, but she also opposed a permanent repeal of the estate tax – a move that has angered the state's many farmers.

Talent, a Newt Gingrich protégé who had a solidly conservative voting record in Congress, has won the endorsement of the state farm bureau. But his firm opposition to abortion and gun control may alienate suburban voters, especially women, among whom Carnahan is running ahead.

Indeed, gender may well influence the race's outcome. "I just think there needs to be more women taking care of things," says Clara Ratliff, a Democrat attending a Carnahan rally in Chillicothe. Her daughter-in-law, Ann Ratliff, an independent voter and 5th-grade teacher in St. Louis, shudders that Talent is "too conservative."

The two candidates are well-matched financially: Carnahan has raised close to $8 million, while Talent, aided by two visits from President Bush, has brought in more than $5 million. Surveys show the race is likely to be close. Both campaigns point to internal polls indicating their candidate is ahead, though most independent polls give Carnahan a 6-to-8 point edge.

"It's always close in Missouri," says Missouri Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond (R). "Missouri is a microcosm of the nation."

While the two candidates cut very different figures, and are separated by more than two decades in age, they share an underlying competitive spirit. Talent has been on the ballot in every election since he was 27. Carnahan was clearly a driving force behind her husband's ambition. She laughingly confides that whenever they would drive home in separate cars, it would turn into a race. "We never said anything about it," she says. "It was just a little competition to see who could get home the fastest."

Page: 1 | 2