Bavaria's no-nonsense hope for chancellor

The conservatives know that the economy is the current government's Achilles heel.But Stoiber also acknowledges that he has an image problem, and with an eye toward sprucing it up, he hired Harbach's firm to help him win credibility in Berlin.

The media and several hundred guests packed Harbach's trendy nightclub, 90 Degrees, in downtown Berlin, for an evening publicity event. "He wanted to show that he fits into Berlin," says Harbach. "He wants to look cooler and more relaxed. But he's going to need to visit more than one discotèque once in a while to do that. He should really come more often – and not leave so early."

Stoiber's lack of finesse hit a new low Saturday, when he accidentally struck a woman in the face with a ball while demonstrating his soccer skills during an election rally.

The candidate's humorless, bureaucratic air reflects his political career. The 60-year old Bavarian made his name climbing diligently and dutifully through the ranks of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democratic Union. He first entered the Bavarian assembly in 1974, at the age of 33, and never looked back.Today, even at boisterous venues where he makes campaign stops, his speeches often smack of antiseptic party politics. A lawyer by training, he is known as a workaholic, a man obssessed with details – and results. Opinion polls show Germans find him effective and results-oriented. This is where he has an edge over the good-natured, personable Schröder, particularly on domestic issues.

Stoiber's party, the CSU, has long dominated Bavarian politics, earning Bavaria the reputation in Germany of a bastion of conservatism. But many observers wonder whether Stoiber is politically too far to the right for most Germans outside Bavaria.

"Germany's Christian Democrats have to decide whether they want to be a democratic center-right party like the Republicans in the U.S. or a ethnonationalist party, like those that have had such success recently in Denmark, Italy, and Austria," Werz says. "Stoiber doesn't seem ready to make this decision yet."

Stoiber has occasionally played the populist card on immigration, one of Germany's most sensitive issues, directly linked to the unemployment debate. He has appealed for stricter requirements for political asylum seekers and immigration in general. Domestic security and fighting crime are recurrent themes in his stump speeches.

Although he has warned against a "multicultural society on German soil," many observers think Stoiber is toeing a relatively moderate line on the volatile issues around immigration.

"If he's smart, he'll be guarded on this issue," says Adrianne Woltersdorf, city editor of the nationwide daily Die Tageszeitung, which is based in Berlin. "He can't campaign here like he's in Bavaria. It would be very dangerous." Ms. Woltersdorf also argues that in Berlin many young women, in particular, feel uncomfortable with Stoiber's conservative family policies. "Women don't want to have to fight again for things that they already fought for and won," she says, referring to benefits for single mothers, among other entitlements.

With less than two months to go before the election, surveys show that nearly 40 percent of voters remain undecided.

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