Experts ponder papal succession

"The church is rapidly approaching a point where you can say it's a non-European church," says John Paul Wauck, a professor at the Sante Croce Pontifical University in Rome. "The next pope, regardless of his nationality, will by necessity be a non-European pope."

While many observers look to Latin America as the source of the next pontiff, others look to Africa, where Catholicism is growing most rapidly. But Africa is seen as a long shot because of the lack of established church tradition there in comparison to Latin America or Europe.

Many of the strongest candidates are from European countries, including Belgium, Germany, Austria, and Italy.

Observers say the only thing that's near certain is that the next pope won't be from the US. "The Vatican prizes its diplomatic neutrality too much to elect a superpower pope," says Mr. Allen. The cardinals may also fear that an American pope might be a lightning rod for terrorist attacks, creating new security challenges at the Vatican. The ongoing pedophilia scandal – which most here regard as an American problem – has further weakened US cardinals' potential candidacies.

Vatican watchers generally expect the next pope to be older – probably in his mid-sixties – as cardinals look for a transitional figure to give them time to digest the implications of John Paul II's long and extremely active pontificate.

"I doubt they'll elect somebody who is quite young," says Gerald O'Collins of the Gregorian Pontifical University in Rome, who thinks the cardinals want a shorter papacy next time around.

Papal spokesman Joaquin Navarro-Valls finds all the speculation amusing. He recalls that during the last two papal elections in 1978, a very popular book was released in Italy entitled "Which Pope?" "It had all these great lists of different cardinals.... What a pity that the book didn't include two names: the man who was elected John Paul I and the one who was elected John Paul II."

Picking who will be the next pope is a perilous undertaking: the cardinal electors sometimes – but not always – surprise even seasoned Vatican experts with their choice. In theory, any of the 122 cardinal electors could be chosen by his peers. But a few names stand out in many people's minds.

Godfried Danneels, Belgium. A brilliant and widely-respected theologian, Danneels is seen as a unifying figure acceptable to both conservatives and progressives within the College of Cardinals.

Claudio Hummes, Brazil. Theologically conservative, but engaged in confronting poverty and other social problems, the Franciscan archbishop of San Paulo is considered one of the strongest Latin American candidates.

Jaime Lucas Ortega Y Alamino, Cuba. The Archbishop of Havana, Mr. Ortega has kept the church alive in defiance of Cuba's communist regime. Many see parallels with John Paul II, whom he has closely supported.

Francis Arinze, Nigeria. The head of the Vatican Council for Inter-Religious Dialogue, Mr. Arinze is the strongest African candidate. Personable and theologically conservative, Arinze has shown great loyalty to the current pope. But many cardinals are skeptical of a pontiff from Africa, where Catholicism has relatively shallow roots.

Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, Honduras. The personable archbishop of Tegucigalpa has long been seen as a rising star. His youth and a recent outburst against US press coverage of the Catholic sex scandals probably weakened his candidacy.

Dario Castrillon Hoyos, Colombia. Favorite of archconservatives, Mr. Castrillon is the head of the Vatican office of the clergy. A defender of traditional doctrine, he's taken a bold stance against his country's powerful drug lords.

Walter Kasper, Germany. Favorite of progressives, Mr. Kasper is a intellectual heavyweight who's advocated decentralization of the church, reform of the Vatican bureaucracy, and a more lenient stance towards divorced Catholics. Kasper, currently head of ecumenical affairs for the Vatican, may not fit the profile of a "transitional" pope.

Giovanni Battista Re, Italy. A theological moderate with unparalleled skills as an administrator, Mr. Re is regarded in some quarters as a perfect transitional figure. But his experience has been entirely within the Vatican, which may hurt his candidacy. His chances would improve if he serves as an archbishop before the next conclave.

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