Shifting prospects of L.A. secession bid

The detail is important because since the Times carried the poll results in its front-page story July 2 under the headline, "Voters Oppose Breaking Up Los Angeles," a host of negative developments for secessionists have followed. Candidates have withdrawn their names from possible mayoral candidacy to head the new city. Key Latino and black leaders have come out against the new city, as have key former politicians from Mayor Richard Riordan to Assembly Speaker (and mayoral candidate) Antonio Villaraigosa.

"The reason no self-respecting politician wants to have his name in the hat is that none of them think it will pass," says Larry Berg, of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Government. "That's a very bad sign for the prosecessionists."

This week, Magic Johnson, the NBA Hall of Fame basketball star from the LA Lakers announced he'll campaign against secession. And a measure to offer voters an alternative to secession – a plan to divide the city into boroughs – was struck down July 16 by the City Council, a move suggesting they're now less fearful of secession support and aren't compelled to offer an option to stave it off.

Times management itself assigned top reporter David Shaw to compare Times and Daily News coverage. In a series of articles in June, Mr. Shaw concluded that the Times had indeed given short shrift to the idea because management had not taken the movement seriously, calling the tone of news coverage "sometimes derisive." Chastened by its own investigation, the Times assigned up to five reporters at a time to the issue. Yet the effect of that extra coverage appears to have weakened public support for secession. Others, including Times pollster Susan Pinkus, defend the Times coverage and poll methods.

"[Secessionists] are complaining because after more complete coverage of their issue the people are leaning against it," says Ms. Pinkus. She defends the use of "likely" voters in her poll because the vote is still nearly four months away.

As for how the shift in support occurred, most political analysts say the gloves have come off. Secessionists say that Mayor Hahn and other top officials are leaning on the city's 34,000 employees – and any other politicians who aspire to public life – to fight the movement. One example is former police chief Bernard Parks, now running for city council, who has recently stated he will oppose secession. He joins Mr. Johnson, who has redevelopment investments that depend on city money.

"This is going to be a very tough fight from the city people who have politicians, money, and experience on their side," says Mr. Berg. "It' very easy to create doubt in the minds of voters ... and when they are not sure, they vote 'no.'

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