For the most part, the Israelis are delighted, the Arabs are aghast, and the Palestinians are trying to look on the bright side.

In a speech on Monday that reaffirmed US support for the policies and practices of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, President Bush also outlined his vision for a peaceful Middle East. Once the Palestinians institute a full-fledged democracy and elect "new leaders ... not compromised by terror," Mr. Bush promised, the US would help create a provisional Palestinian state.

In short, the president's message seemed to be: Goodbye Yasser Arafat, hello Palestine – in that order.

But if Palestinians do put in place the sort of democracy that Bush calls for, complete with a new constitution, separation of powers, and a streamlined, accountable security apparatus, their government will stand alone in the Arab world.

None of the Arab regimes, including US friends such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, fulfills such democratic ideals.

Israel has been railing against the Palestinian leadership for many months, so Bush's formulation pleased many on the Israeli side of the conflict. "The speech was a vindication of Israel's approach that an absolute end to violence and terror" should precede any negotiations toward Palestinian statehood, says Zalman Shoval, an adviser to Mr. Sharon.

While those in government were pleased, critics worried that a wholehearted US endorsement of Sharon's view will not necessarily bring peace."[O]ne can be optimistic or, more to the point, naive, and believe that in the wake of Bush's speech the Palestinians will see the light, understand that they chose the wrong course, decry terrorism, and vomit it from their midst," wrote columnist Hemi Shalev in yesterday's Ma'ariv, a mass-circulation Israeli daily. "Nevertheless, it is more likely that this overtly unbalanced speech will only further complicate the situation.... [it] might have been a giant step for Ariel Sharon, but it was probably a very small step for the chances of peace."

"The White House does not want to become involved in negotiations: It wants an alibi that will justify its decision not to get the president involved in our affairs," wrote Nahum Barnea, the leading Israeli columnist for the Yedioth Ahronoth. "The president isn't built for Middle Eastern despair."

Most Arab commentators were dismayed at the deal Bush appeared to offer. "It's a fundamentally absurd proposal," said Lebanese political analyst Michael Young. "You cannot expect Arafat to reform the system when he's going to be a victim of that reform."

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