Russian nuclear know-how pours into Iran

"There is practically zero risk that Iran will use the Bushehr power plant for nuclear proliferation," says Vladimir Orlov, head of the PIR Center, a Moscow think tank, echoing some American analysts. He notes that Russia will cut Iran out of the nuclear-fuel cycle by supplying all such fuel itself and immediately taking spent fuel back to Russia.

"Russia doesn't want – and will not support – any ambitions of Iran which may be interpreted as nuclear weapons ambitions," Mr. Orlov says, adding that the US "exaggerates the situation."

Moscow has sometimes defied Iran's wishes, Orlov says. In the 1990s it refused Tehran's request to build a more robust heavy-water reactor. And Russia turned down a request for gas centrifuges, which could have led to production of homegrown- weapons-grade material.

Moscow's caution was illustrated earlier this year, Orlov says, when Iran asked to buy the Russian version of the shoulder- held US Stinger missile – the Igla, or "needle" – designed to shoot down aircraft. Angering Tehran, Russia said no – because Iran's contacts with anti-Israel Hizbullah guerrillas in Lebanon meant Moscow was "not certain that Igla would stay in Iran."

Still, Moscow is a key factor in any Iranian nuclear aspirations. "Russian technology is unique to the Iranian program, because it is the only game in town," says Rose Gottemoeller, a former Deputy Undersecretary of Energy responsible for nonproliferation programs, who is now at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. "Everyone else has cut off cooperation with Iran on nuclear technology, including the Chinese."

While US officials worry that Bushehr will create a nuclear knowledge base in Iran that could be applied to a weapons program, Ms. Gottemoeller says the real risk comes from a "handful" of "bottom feeders – small Russian industrial or research institutions that are desperate, or they wouldn't be trying to take extreme measures, such as false invoices ... to mask their sales."

The majority of nuclear-related entities here have decided to "stay on the straight and narrow," Gottemoeller says. Recent leadership changes at the top of the Ministry of Atomic Energy are likely to tighten controls further.

Still, says Gottemoeller, "the Russian system being what it is, I'm sure there are others [desperate institutions] who could pop out of the mud at any time."

Keeping that from happening has been the aim of US pressure on Russia for a decade, since some analysts say that any new nuclear power in the Mideast would almost certainly spark other nuclear weapons programs, and cause global nonproliferation accords – signed by both Russia and Iran – to collapse. Already, the Bushehr project is subject to regular IAEA inspection.

Noting that until now Russian controls on sensitive technology have been "half-hearted and incomplete," Gary Samore, a special adviser to Clinton on nonproliferation who is now at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, says: "There may be a real opportunity now, post-Sept. 11, for the US and Russia to work out an agreement that would give the Russians a strong incentive to go all the way in enforcing what they say is their policy."

Mr. Samore says the US should recognize that the Bushehr project is too advanced to stop, and offer to "grandfather" the deal. Russia would receive a variety of incentives, Samore suggests, for explicitly limiting the Bushehr deal to power needs, handling all fuel supplies, and for insisting on public commitments from Iran to swear off fuel-cycle ambitions and comply with tougher IAEA "go anywhere" inspections. Samore says such a deal would test Iran's declarations of peaceful intentions, while relieving it of waste-disposal problems. Tehran's rejection of such a plan would lead to the "obvious conclusion" about Iran's nuclear plans, he adds.

"The sooner you can step in to slow down or stop [Iran's] program, the better," says Samore. "If we just let the situation drift and don't do anything, they will get closer and closer, and will eventually reach the technical point of no return."

As the Bushehr project continues, Russian law enforcement will be critical in guarding against dangerous transfers of technology, experts say. "If their security is as effective as they claim it to be, and we think it is, they should be able to track these things down," says the US official who requested anonymity. "They know who is flying on Aeroflot to Tehran."

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