Israel's tragedy, Arafat's setback

For Israelis, Tuesday's bus bombing was a landmark atrocity. For the Palestinian Authority, it also promises to be devastating, but for very different reasons.

It was one of the worst of the scores of Palestinian suicide attacks in nearly two years of hostilities, leaving at least 19 dead and some 40 wounded, including students en route to school and morning commuters.

The incident comes shortly before an expected Middle East policy speech by President George Bush. And Israeli and Palestinian leaders alike are wondering if it may sway him further toward the arguments of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He is steadfastly against the idea of a Palestinian state now, on the grounds that terrorism must first be obliterated.

With a new cabinet, and a new interior minister, Abdul Razaq Yihya, the Palestinian Authority had been trying to shore up its image as a potential negotiating partner with Israel. But, flying in the face of statements by Mr. Yihya that suicide attacks harm the Palestinians, Hamas, which claimed respon- sibility for the attack, has left the PA's renewed image effort up in smoke.

According to reports from Washington, the president is weighing support for a "provisional" Palestinian state in areas already formally under PA control.

But analysts predict the attack's immediate fallout will be to facilitate Israel's diplomatic and military effort to snuff out hopes for a state or renewed negotiations. "Sharon will use this to the fullest," predicts Ali Jarbawi, a professor of political science at Bir Zeit University in Ramallah. "He will argue with the Americans that they should alter Bush's speech and also take action on the ground to make sure any talk of a viable state is never implemented."

Mr. Sharon said at the scene of the carnage: "The terrible sights here are stronger than any words. It is interesting to know what kind of Palestinian state they mean. What Palestinian state?"

During his recent visit to Washington, Sharon argued that the Palestinians would be continuing terrorist attacks, and therefore there is no point in planning negotiations with them while violence continues. Education Minister Limor Livnat Tuesday raised again the idea of expelling Mr. Arafat, something the Bush administration has until now opposed. "It is one possibility, a way to ensure he is no longer there so that an alternative leadership can be dealt with," she said.

In Washington, Raymond Tanter, a National Security Council adviser in the first Bush administration, predicts the attack will speed up plans for Bush to deliver the speech, especially since there is concern that "Israel could choose to retaliate with force that would bury peace prospects."

"The president will see he has to seize the moment before Israel responds in such a fashion that makes his proposal irrelevant," Mr. Tanter says.

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