Afghans put off key decisions

As Afghanistan struggles to make a transition to democracy, it is hitting perilous bumps along the way.

Bypassing key decisions about the makeup of a new cabinet and the formation of parliament, the newly elected head of state, Hamid Karzai, moved Monday to end the first deliberations of the national grand assembly, or loya jirga, which had convened a week ago to craft a blueprint for the country's future government.

Mr. Karzai said he would like to continue to meet in the future with the delegates, suggesting that the 1,600 loya jirga members from across the nation would remain a standing body as long as there is no parliament.

Western diplomats and analysts said that Mr. Karzai's abrupt decision to skirt the most controversial issues is likely to disappoint many delegates and prolong the country's struggle toward democracy.

"Mr. Karzai's hesitancy to deal with key cabinet posts is a dangerous move," says a senior Western diplomat in Kabul. "He has left several issues on Afghanistan's future unresolved, and this risks a backlash from delegates who had great expectations about a new democratic process in Afghanistan."

In seven days of deliberation, the loya jirga managed to agree on only one thing: the election of Karzai as president.

Late yesterday, delegates on the floor – disappointed with Mr. Karzai's efforts to end the grand assembly early, shouted their insistence that the political body meet again today. The chairperson of the assembly then asked representatives to come again today to deliberate.

"I don't think we could have anticipated the democratic pressures that we have seen emerging on the floor of the assembly," says a senior Western diplomat here. "It may be difficult for one man to control."

These are among the growing pains of a nation emerging from centuries of tribalism and recent painful religious tyranny, to forge a new, more representative system, observers say. Given what they're up against, the loya jirga members are managing pretty well, say diplomats and analysts. In a country where for two decades, ethnic slaughter was the rule, Afghans have proven exceptionally civil in the loya jirga proceedings.

"The Afghans have already exceeded our expectations by creating a sovereign body of 1,600 representatives that is probably more democratic-minded than anything that has come before it," says the diplomat.

Still, some senior Western diplomats in Kabul say threats remain to the fledgling democracy, with particular danger coming from rural areas, where old-style intimidation by warlords and former Taliban members continues. In the southern half of the country, bringing a video-recorder to a market – something prohibited in the days of the Taliban – is still enough to incite a riot, as it did in the city of Kalat, where a mob, urged on by a religious leader, severely beat a man less than two weeks ago.

"Karzai is now the president of Kabul, but if he wants to be the president of Afghanistan, he has a much tougher task ahead of him," says Alex Thier, an Afghan analyst with the International Crisis Group. "What needs to be done now is bring all Afghans, including warlords, into the fold. Karzai's ability to do this appears to be limited for now. We've seen him clearly hand the floor back to commanders and warlords at this assembly on several occasions. His dilemma now is how to consolidate control without alienating the people who have supported him."

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