Bush shapes his plan for 'Palestine'

As President Bush considers how far to go with his vision of a Palestinian state, his situation is not unlike Harry Truman's in 1948.

Then, the question was whether to recognize nascent Israel and the implantation of a Jewish state in the already complicated Middle East. Some confidants favored the idea, the State Department opposed it – but ultimately, Truman opted for recognition.

Now, nearly three months after Mr. Bush's Rose Garden speech in which he offered a vision of "two states living side by side in peace" – and spoke openly of "Palestine" – Bush is on the verge of filling in the blanks of that vision. Whether he opts for quick recognition of an interim Palestinian state, for a go-slow approach that emphasizes nailing down security first, or some combination of the two, his decision, like Truman's, is likely to set the course for the Middle East for years to come.

Bush is expected to offer his vision in a speech as early as this week. Analysts say that Bush will give the speech, anticipated as a major one of Bush's presidency, not only because he wants to see progress in the Middle East, but also because the issue is clouding other items on the president's agenda.

"This decision is a pivotal point in the Bush presidency. He must make the right judgment that keeps him from having an unpleasant confrontation with [Israeli Prime Minister] Ariel Sharon, while also not losing his new credibility with the Arab states," says Stephen Cohen, national scholar with the Israel Policy Forum in New York. "But he is motivated to make this speech – even if some of his advisers may not want him to – because it is clear in his mind that he can't start or advance other work until this gets clarified."

That other work includes the broader war on terrorism, Mr. Cohen says, domestic perceptions of the effectiveness of the homeland-security drive, fall midterm elections, even the looming first anniversary of the September terrorist attacks. Referring to the first point, he adds, "He doesn't want the Arab states against him as he goes into the next phases of the war on terrorism."

Although the president warned as recently as last Thursday against speculating on what he might decide, hints from US officials and leaders who have spoken with Bush suggest his plan will include concrete steps for creation of a Palestinian state.

The emphasis would be on the building of institutions to offer the Palestinian people a more democratic government, as well as other reforms to enhance security. Other points the president might include are a timetable for the steps to a peace accord, and more specifics for a summer Middle East peace conference, which Secretary of State Colin Powell announced last month but which lately has seemed to be slipping.

The possibility of establishing an interim state could be a "halfway house" for the Palestinians, Cohen says, promising better things to come if other goals are met. Such a state could act as an incentive for Palestinians to take the institution-building phase seriously and to cease anti-Israeli violence.

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