Chechens wary of homecoming

Akhmed Magomedov, first deputy representative of the pro-Moscow Chechen government in Moscow, acknowledges that "not all the security problems have been solved" but insists that "nobody will be forced; they will return of their own free will."

Russian authorities claim that life in Chechnya is being restored, that 500 schools are already operating, and industry and community life is reviving. The Kremlin has budgeted 16 billion rubles – about $500 million – for reconstruction of Chechnya. But an investigation released in May by the State Accounting Chamber, which answers to parliament, found massive violations in Chechnya funding for 2001. Of a total 3.1 billion rubles budgeted for that year, it documented the misappropriation of 711 million rubles, or almost a quarter. "In fact," says Mr. Smirnyagin, "less than 10 percent of money allotted for reconstruction even reaches its intended beneficiaries."

Meanwhile, the Russian public is weary of Chechnya, which has sought independence from Russia in two wars since 1994. Although Mr. Putin's personal popularity remains high, surveys show Russians souring on the ongoing counterinsurgency campaign, which kills an average of one Russian soldier daily. A poll last month by the independent VTsIOM public opinion agency found that, while 34 percent of Russians favor continuing the military operation, 58 percent want to begin peace negotiations with the rebel Chechen leadership.

The Kremlin recently dislodged former Ingush President Ruslan Aushev, who had welcomed the refugees, and engineered his replacement with Gen. Zyazikov. Kremlin spokesman Sergei Yastrzhemsky, told the official RIA-Novosti agency last month that a referendum on a new constitution for Chechnya will likely be held "by the end of 2002," followed by elections for a new republican government.

"A giant PR operation is in swing to officially 'solve' the Chechen problem," says Galina Kovalskaya, a journalist who covers Chechnya for Ezhenedelny Zhurnal newsmagazine. "In order for the pieces to fall into place, the population must be returned to Chechnya, where they will be mostly out of sight and therefore no longer a problem."

"The authorities want to persuade the world that the war is over," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of Moscow's Center for Strategic Studies, "and steps like returning the refugees are just part of that effort."

Human rights activists allege that the campaign to force the refugees home has already begun. "There have been threats to cut off food supplies to the camps, and the authorities have already stopped providing any assistance to newly arrived refugees," says Svetlana Aliyeva, head of the Council of Oppressed Peoples, which champions the rights of several former-Soviet minorities.

International organizations and human rights groups are more cautious. Jean-Paul Cavalieri, the United Nations' refugee agency (UNHCR) senior protection officer for Russia, says Russian officials have assured the UN that "there is no deadline" and have given an "an expressed commitment to the voluntary nature of return." But he adds, "We will need to see what the implementation will be."

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