Mubarak presses Bush for Palestinian state

Part of Mubarak's aim is to reestablish Egypt as the key Arab country in the Mideast peace process – a position it lost its grip on after Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah proposed in March a land-for-peace-and-normalized-relations plan that was later endorsed by Arab countries. But Mr. Osman says that foremost, Mubarak wants to impress upon Bush "the danger for American interests and all of our interests" if Palestinians are not given a sense of hope that statehood and more control over their own future is more than a vision.

Mubarak's plan goes further than the Saudi peace plan, Osman says, in that it goes beyond principles to timetables of what must happen when. The idea would be to declare a Palestinian state early next year, after Palestinian political and security structure reforms were in place, but before the settlement of final issues, such as the full and final borders of a Palestinian state, jurisdiction over Jerusalem, and refugees' right of return.

Egypt is not opposed to the American idea of a peace conference, but Osman says, "it will be a flop" unless there is a specific agenda designed to address both sides' concerns and move forward on a Palestinian state. Originally slated for "early summer," the conference has slipped to at least mid-July – possibly in Turkey.

But with little agreement to base it on, the conference could slip further to late in the year, with only a less ambitious meeting of officials this summer.

Despite Bush's call on April 4 for a Palestinian state, it is not clear where the US falls on the debate on whether to move directly to political issues, or proceed incrementally from a security focus. This week, State Department deputy spokesman Philip Reeker said the president's "strategy" is "an integrated, three-part approach establishing effective Palestinian security performance, renewing a serious political process that aims at a two-state solution ... responding to the humanitarian needs" of the Palestinians.

But in the current atmosphere of mistrust, few observers expect the US to risk proposing a peace plan that could be doomed from the outset.

"The US shouldn't come up with a peace plan until the Israelis and Palestinians are ready to make some hard choices for peace," says Raymond Tanter, a Mideast expert who worked the issue in the Reagan White House.

As for other experts who insist this is precisely the time for the US to impose a settlement, Mr. Tanter says, "We've tried that several times. Reagan put a plan on the table in 1981, and the only outcome was that he lost prestige for proposing something the parties could not agree to."

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