Carter in Cuba: Then what?

The Cuban government called the accusations "vile" and said it would provide a full response to the charges.

Mr. Bolton's accusation follows charges by some anti-Castro Cuban-American organizations that a joint Cuba-Iran venture in what Cuba says is pharmaceutical research is really a front for biological-weapons development. Cuba has one of the most advanced biotech- and genetic-engineering programs among third-world countries.

Some American experts on Cuba see the charges as the latest example of official Washington's habit of satanizing the Castro regime.

Wayne Smith, a Cuba expert who represented Washington in Havana under Carter, has long held the view that Cuba affects US officials the way the moon supposedly affects a werewolf. He says Bolton's statements are "grossly misleading and unsubstantiated allegations." But he also says there is an explanation for them.

"Many hard-line Cuban exiles and their political allies are riled that the Bush administration is permitting ... Carter to travel to Cuba," Mr. Smith said in a statement for the Washington-based Center for International Policy, where he heads the Cuba program.

He also sees a connection to Americans' changing perceptions of Cuba. "For several years now, coalitions of business, agriculture, political and rights groups have joined forces with an overwhelming majority in Congress to lift trade and travel restrictions against Cuba." The latest charges by Bolton and others "would appear to be a desperate effort to stay the inevitable."

Where Smith and those like him join US officials is in criticizing the Castro regime's lack of democracy and poor human rights record. Proponents of a more open US policy say they hope Carter can have some impact in these areas.

Still, many experts note that Pope John Paul II visited Cuba in 1998 amid much fanfare and similar hopes. But aside from opening some space for freedom of worship, his visit had little impact on the Cuban government.

Carter will give a speech at the University of Havana that will be televised around the island country of 11 million people. The former president is also expected to sit down with a number of prominent dissidents, including Vladimiro Roca, who was released from prison a week ago with two months left to serve on his five-year sentence.

Carter is also expected to meet with Oswaldo Payá, who has stunned the Cuban government by quietly collecting 10,000 signatures on a petition demanding a national referendum to ask Cubans if they want civil liberties like freedom of speech, private enterprise, and an end to political imprisonment. The Cuban Constitution says a referendum should be called if 10,000 voters support it.

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