Cool Korea relations turn colder

Supporters of a tougher US policy toward North Korea say the White House has, post-Sept. 11, made it crystal clear to Kim Jong Il that there is "no more Mr. Nice Guy," as one Western diplomat here put it. North Korea is suspected of exporting missile technology and of having the capacity to conduct a program to manufacture weapons of mass destruction.

A South Korean official says the main difference between the Clinton approach, and the post-Sept. 11 Bush approach, "is that Kim Jong Il knows there is no more wiggle room. Under Clinton, they could get something out of brinkmanship. I think they aren't sure anymore."

The consensus view in Seoul is that the cancelled meeting this week, which would have included a major shipment of needed rice to hungry North Korea, was done under a pretext. "Kim has done this before, usually when he is not ready for talks. I think they just weren't prepared."

The North is under increasing pressure. Kim, who lost China and Russia as his main allies several years ago, needs to open up the North for needed investment and capital. Yet there is worry in Kim's circles, intelligence reports say, that too much opening will unravel the extreme levels of police control needed to keep the population compliant.

Dissatisfaction and even desperation are behind increasing instances of North Koreans slipping into China – and seeking asylum in embassies and consulates. Some 23 refugees dashed into the Spanish Embassy in Beijing last month. On Wednesday this week, five of seven refugees from North Korea were captured as they tried to rush the Japanese Consulate in Shenyang.

"They need our money, our supplies, our grain, our power, our fertilizer, our support," says one South Korean diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "They find it hard to admit they need us. But they do. The policy of engagement is the only policy that will work in the long run."

What South Koreans mainly wait for is the long expected trip by Kim Jong Il to Seoul. That would be the most significant icebreaker – and Kim of the North promised such a visit to Kim of the South two years ago. But he has never followed through. Last month in Pyongyang, Kim ordered his military, in the presence of Lim, the South's envoy, to clear the land mines away from the main rail link between South and North, sources here say. But the mines remain.

Most Koreans in the South no longer speak of the North as "the enemy" – as they did a few years ago. Some here say the engagement policy has prevented the collapse of North Korea. The sunshine policy is also regarded as an important form of "people to people" diplomacy. As many as 10 million Koreans have been separated from their families since the Korean war ended in 1953.

Page: 1 | 2