Lessons for Afghanistan from Mozambique

Mozambique's greatest success, and the greatest lesson international donors say the country holds for Afghanistan, has been its ability to sustain its economic growth – and the interest of the international aid community – after the initial postwar boom faded.

With the exception of the two years when Mozambique was hit by devastating floods, economic growth has consistently been in the double digits and, 10 years after the end of the war, Mozambique continues to receive the lion's share of aid to the region.

More than $6.5 billion in international aid flowed into Mozambique during the first five years of peace, most of which went to demilitarization and demining, infrastructure and capacity strengthening, and poverty reduction. Donors were pleased with the way this initial money was used, and funds have continued pouring in. Last year, the European Union gave more than $350 million in aid to Mozambique, an amount equal to 60 percent of the country's annual budget.

Mozambique continues to be a favorite of international aid donors, in part because it has conducted many of the internal reforms the international community deems vital for a healthy developing economy. It has largely abandoned its Marxist past. It has privatized the bulk of state-owned enterprises, abandoned the one-party state, and assigned the bulk of its budget to poverty-reduction programs. Just last year, its highly praised poverty-reduction program made it one of the few countries that qualified for debt-relief programs from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

"This country is an outstanding example of a market democracy," says David Hess, Acting Director of USAID in Mozambique. "Everyone is looking to support a country like that."

The success of aid to Mozambique in the postwar period can provide another lesson for Afghanistan, international donors say. Ten years ago, most aid went directly from donors to people in need, and its main purpose was to address immediate humanitarian concerns such as food shortages and health crises.

Despite its successes, Mozambique's model may not be a perfect fit for Afghanistan, where strong local leaders or warlords may prove to be a barrier to effective postwar reconstruction. (See story, page 6.) Predominantly Christian, Mozambique had little history of religious fundamentalism, warlords, or ethnic conflict, all of which may stand in the way of rebuilding Afghanistan.

While Mozambique successfully integrated rebel forces into a national government, Afghanistan's local leaders and warlords may not so willingly concede power to a central authority.

"In order to have a successful peace [in Afghanistan], there's going to have to be the establishment of some sort of federal constitution with a lot of regional autonomy," says Taylor Seybolt, director of the Conflict and Peace Enforcement Project at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Another question is whether Afghans will be willing to stick with the long, slow road to prosperity taken by Mozambique.

Despite its progress, Mozambique remains desperately poor, ranking 157 out of 162 in the UNDP's 2001 Human Development Report. The country lags behind its neighbors in access to healthcare, clean water, and primary education.

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