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US tests the limits of its leverage in Mideast
Powell faces a difficult task in persuading the Israelis to withdraw and Palestinians to condemn terrorism.
WASHINGTON
The Bush administration's approach to the Israeli-Arab crisis has been a two-track proposition ever since its unveiling last week.
Track 1: Lean on the Israelis to withdraw from the Palestinian territories. Track 2: Ask moderate Arab states to condemn terrorism and pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to do the same.
But so far, the most striking aspect of this policy of dualism may be its lack of progress in either aspect. Israel's tentative moves toward withdrawal pulling back from two towns while attacking another as well as a rocky start for Secretary of State Colin Powell's trip to the region, show the limits of Washington's leverage.
The Arab world, in particular, now seems in a stronger position to exert pressure on Washington than the other way around.
"They may have more credible leverage over us," says Arab expert Michael Hudson of Georgetown University. "We're telling them we're in desperate straits, and they've got to help us out. But they're saying, 'Don't ask for help until you've helped us with our enraged public opinion.' "
Arabs' criteria
Indeed, Saudi and Egyptian leaders have apparently handed Mr. Powell a list of criteria that the United States must help to fulfill in order to have their support in the peace process.
Those include Israeli withdrawal, US monitors on the ground, and a recognition that Mr. Arafat is the main negotiator for the Palestinians. They also reject the sequential approach the US has taken on the peace process so far, and are demanding that Washington deal with security and political goals at the same time.
At his press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher yesterday, Powell appeared to agree on all four of these points, announcing, for instance, his intent to meet with Arafat later in the week and saying that the US "recognizes that the Palestinian people view Chairman Arafat as their leader."
The administration has been harsh in its criticism of Arafat and has even tried to encourage communication with other officials in the Palestinian Authority as a way to marginalize him. Powell seemed to move much closer to the Arab position when he said that after a cease-fire, he wants to move "immediately" into political discussions that include Palestinian statehood.
While the region looks to the US as the only outside power that can influence events on the ground, several factors are acting to curtail the amount of leverage the US can exercise at this moment in history. One is the fundamental nature of the latest clash the Israelis and Palestinians are both focused on the immediate question of their very existence.
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