Western and African leaders at odds over Zimbabwe

There is also a fraternity between Mugabe and other liberation movement rebels-turned-government leaders. "It is unrealistic to think the ANC [South Africa's National Congress] or SWAPO [Namibia's ruling party], FRELIMO [Mozambique's Front for Liberation] or the MPLA [Angola's movement for popular liberation] is going to be openly critical of the ZANU-PF or its liberation-fighter leader," says John Prendergast, Africa program director at the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG). "These movements have a long history of supporting each other." Mugabe, for example, was an outspoken critic of the South Africa's apartheid regime, a stance not easily forgotten in the region.

Finally, there is solidarity on a pan-African level, with support for one another in the face of "the outsider." This includes a hesitancy to sanction intervention in the internal politics of another African country by the West. "African self-esteem is on the line," says one African diplomat, stressing that there is a general feeling among Africans that events in Zimbabwe attracted international attention only because of Mugabe's persecution of a small group of white landowners. "We need to stick together and not kowtow every time whites decide to butt in," says the diplomat.

Even if African leaders wanted to criticize Mugabe and his election, it is not likely they would do so in public, especially with rest of the world watching. "There is an unwillingness or inability to wield power in that way," says Ross Herbert, Africa research fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. "Leaders here are uncomfortable to rap other leaders in the region on the knuckles. They are uncomfortable with the US way of doing things, of saying straight out, 'that is wrong.' "

African leaders "might run over each other's borders," adds Mr. Prendergast, "but they will not politically interfere with the neighbors' affairs. It has always been standard operating procedure. It's just that we are noticing it now."

Furthermore, says Tom Lodge, head of the political studies department at the University of Witwatersrand, there is a sense among African leaders that such public admonitions lead nowhere. "There is a perception that you can't force Mugabe to do anything. Being nasty to him makes him nastier still, and so gentleness and tactful persuasion are the only ways to get around him," he says.

If Mbeki – and to a lesser extent Obasanjo – continues to sit on the fence and does not openly criticize Mugabe, it seems likely that this will have consequences for the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) – Mbeki's visionary plan for a resurgent Africa. NEPAD is based on a formula whereby African leaders commit themselves to good governance, democratic principles, and to hold one another accountable – in exchange for $64 billion in Western financial and technical assistance "This is the test," says Prendergast. "The African governments need to uphold the principles of democracy they signed on to. For their own credibility they will have to condemn these elections."

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