Palestinians say the tide has turned

The conviction is growing among Palestinians that they have gained the upper hand over Israel.

Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat yesterday racked up two tactical, short-term victories. Vice President Dick Cheney said he would return soon to the Middle East to meet Mr. Arafat, thus ending the Bush administration's embargo on top-level meetings with the Palestinian leader, provided he takes steps in the coming days to stop attacks against Israelis. Under the same condition, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon agreed to end Arafat's punitive confinement to this West Bank city, meaning that he may be able to attend a much-anticipated Arab summit in Beirut later this month.

Arafat, a man the Israeli government once declared "irrelevant," is now back in the thick of events.

The Palestinians are also winning, if that is the word, in longer-range, more strategic ways. They are enjoying unprecedented international engagement in efforts to resolve their plight: The US is once again intimately involved in mediation efforts, the UN Security Council has for the first time formally endorsed the idea of the "state of Palestine," and the Arabs are working on a comprehensive peace plan for the Middle East.

But Palestinians say that the greatest evidence of their advantage is that Israeli society seems divided over the best way to address the conflict. Palestinians themselves are much more unified behind a strategy of violent resistance to Israel's enduring occupation of their lands.

Ibrahim Abayat, a fatigue-wearing, gun-wielding leader of a Palestinian militia in Bethlehem, says he is convinced that this approach is "100 percent" effective. "It is the only language the Israelis understand."

"What happened in Jerusalem on Gaza road," he says, referring to a suicide-bomb attack at a cafe this month that killed 11 Israelis, "has stirred up Israeli society and made them question the effectiveness of Israeli military operations against us." Of course, not just this bombing has created a debate – a slew of them has – and it is not yet clear whether Israeli frustration will translate into more drastic military action or a shift of gears toward peace talks.

Nearly half of Israelis questioned in a Tel Aviv University poll conducted in February said they favored the forcible "transfer" of Palestinians out the territories – generally considered the most hawkish and extreme approach to the conflict. At the same time, fully 50 percent said they favored the removal of all but the largest Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip – a sign that there is still strong support for a negotiated solution that would provide the Palestinians with a state on these lands, which were seized by Israel in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

A leading member of what is called Israel's security establishment – the soldiers and officials who have devoted careers and lives to defending the Jewish state – says the Palestinians should indeed feel victorious after nearly 18 months of conflict. "They are right," says Ami Ayalon, former director of the Israel Security Agency, or Shin Bet, the country's internal intelligence service. "More Israelis than two years ago would vote for a Palestinian state which is not far from the '67 borders," he says.

But while the Palestinians may get more land than they were offered in US-brokered peace talks in 2000, they may pay a price down the road, Mr. Ayalon adds. An agreement reached today, he says, "will be between two societies that not only have lost trust, but that hate each other."

Even so, there is an unmistakable sense of victory among Palestinians.

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