Russia rethinks its longtime support for Iraq

Putin has "seized upon" the subsequent tolerance in Russia to build US-Russia ties "because of the common threat."

"[Russians] also see Saddam Hussein as dangerous," Talbott says. "But they also have very real economic interests." Even more important, Talbott adds, is that Russia "not be yet again left aside, while Uncle Sam struts his stuff."

Already the events after Sept. 11 have transformed the geostrategic horizons of both countries. While Moscow disagrees with the US list of "axis of evil" countries, which include Iran and North Korea, besides Iraq, it has permitted the US military to build semipermanent bases throughout former Soviet states of Central Asia to battle Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Before Sept. 11, Russia was fingered as a key proliferator of weapons-of-mass-destruction expertise, it opposed NATO expansion, and fumed at Washington's determination to pull out of cornerstone arms-control treaties. After September, the Kremlin barely whimpered when Bush announced the US was abandoning the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty. In exchange for softening its positions, Russia expected greater understanding from the US on several key issues. But, surprising to many Russians - who have cast their war against Chechen separatists as a struggle against terrorists that mirrors the US campaign and expected less US criticism in exchange for helping the US in its war - was the US State Department's annual human rights report, published Monday. Russian forces in Chechnya "demonstrated little respect for basic human rights," it said, citing "numerous reports of extra-judicial killings." Russia's foreign ministry called the report "odious," and written "as if the events of Sept. 11, 2001, had not occurred."

"[The Kremlin] has invested so much in this pro-American, pro-West posture, if it opposes the US on a marginal issue like Iraq, that investment will go up in smoke. And what for?" says Dmitri Trenin, a Russian policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow.

"The change has occurred in the Russian view of American resolve: The new thing is the political will that exists in Washington," Mr. Trenin says. "Russians will not be enthusiasts of the operation [in Iraq], but they are realizing that their opposition will reap no benefit."

With $15 billion to $20 billion at stake - some $8 billion in Soviet-era military debt, and billions more in oil deals - Russia is now calculating that a new regime could ensure a payback.

"The Russians are better aware of their limitations," Trenin says. "You only get your money if you play along with the US. You will get nothing if you oppose them."

That may be the Kremlin plan. "Putin believes that Russia's destiny is with the West," says Talbott. "That is where the money is. And he knows he needs that investment and support for Russia to make it as a modern economy."

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