Oh, baby! Look how your ranks grow

Already these babies are good for the economy. In 2000, Americans spent $6 billion on baby equipment - cribs, high chairs, car seats, blankets, bottles. That marks an 11 percent jump from the previous year, according to the Washington-based Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association. Similarly, a large retailer of maternity clothes reports that net sales in January increased 12 percent over the same month last year.

A stronger interest in family and children, reflected in higher birth rates, will also help to determine what issues policymakers must consider locally and nationally, and what shape communities take, Smith says.

Not everyone views the higher birth rate as progress. Negative Population Growth, a group advocating smaller families, notes that the United States has grown 13 percent in the past decade and 85 percent in the past 50 years. In addition to the strain such growth places on the nation's infrastructure and natural resources, the implications for education are particularly dire, says spokeswoman Alison Green.

"Schools are already struggling to meet basic educational challenges," she says. These include raising academic achievement levels and meeting the needs of growing numbers of non-English-speaking students.

Demographers caution that it is too soon to know whether the higher birth rate represents merely a temporary blip or the beginning of a long-term trend.

"We don't know how this will all pan out," says Stephanie Ventura, co-author of the report on birth rates from the National Center for Health Statistics. "It's very foolhardy to try to predict. We've had increases like this before, and then they just turn right around and go back down again."

Mark Mather, a policy analyst at the Population Reference Bureau, expects immigration to sustain relatively high fertility rates for some time. People who are coming to this country tend to have higher fertility rates than those who were born here, he explains.

Smith, of Yankelovich Partners, sees a continuing "fertility boom" ahead. He notes that Gen-Xers are having their first child much sooner than baby boomers did. He also predicts that they will have bigger families.

Over the years, his polling firm has repeatedly asked respondents whether having a child is an experience that every woman should have. In 1979, 45 percent of baby-boom women - less than half - agreed with that statement. When Yankelovich measured it most recently among Gen-X women, 68 percent, or more than two-thirds, agreed.

Some business ownerswith a finger to the wind also predict more births in the wake of last fall's terrorist attacks. Bob Hunter, president of Stork Avenue, an online birth-announcement company, has had a fourfold increase in catalog requests in the months following Sept. 11.

He even points to the names parents are choosing for babies as evidence of a return to a stronger sense of family. Mr. Hunter notes a shift toward more biblical, traditional names.

For boys, Jacob is overtaking the perennial favorite, Michael, in many states. For girls, Hannah is edging out Emily.

As bundles of pink and blue fill maternity wards, as strollers cluster on suburban sidewalks, and as parents learn to speak baby talk, he and others see positive effects.

"People have been waiting for the right reason to have a baby," Hunter says. "Having a child is an affirmation of life, affirmation of a couple's love for each other and for family. I think it's good news for the country."

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