Iran's nuclear challenge: deter, not antagonize

But Iran is having trouble putting together working advanced missiles, to say nothing of any nuclear filling. Since 1998, Iran has tested three Shahab-3 missiles, which are based on North Korea's No-Dong, and have a range of 600 miles which could reach Israel. No more than a dozen remain, by one count. Two tests failed. Russian experts brought to work on the Iranian missile project in the late 1990s, according to The Washington Post, say the program was disorganized and that they were hired largely "for show."

"There are doubts about what Iran is doing," says another Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified. "But at the same time, they are years behind entering the nuclear club, and their ballistic missile program is in difficult shape. The problem is the US and Israel say Iran is building ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles]. This is questionable."

Iran's nuclear program is also far weaker than many of its already weaponized neighbors, including Pakistan and Israel. Against the wishes of the US, Russia plans to complete two civilian power reactors in Iran by September 2003.

"Iran's [nuclear] program is in shambles, and the people who read all the intelligence know that," says Amin Tarzi, an Iran specialist at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterrey Institute in California. "If anybody blows up Bushehr [reactor], they are wasting their money."

Despite the risks, Iran would have good reasons for seeking a nuclear capability, Mr. Tarzi says, regardless of who rules in Tehran.

"Pakistan showed that having nuclear weapons can change the policy of great nations," Tarzi says. "Iran looks at this, and if you are dealing with the US - especially after this 'axis of evil' business - the only thing that works is nuclear weapons. You are treated differently."

Unlike its nuclear neighbors Israel, Pakistan, and India, Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and allows the UN International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear material.

"From our point of view, Iran has been playing by the rules," says Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the IAEA in Vienna. "However, these rules, under the safeguard system that we have now, are limited."

The limitation is that Iran (along with the US and a host of other countries) has not fully ratified the "additional protocol" that enables go-anywhere inspections. But analysts say that any clandestine nuclear ambition - if only for prestige in a dangerous neighborhood - mirrors its chaotic political system and has little political commitment or money.

Per capita, Iran spends far less militarily than the US or Israel - $137 a person, as compared with $1,382 for the US and $1,515 for Israel. Still, the worst-case scenario about Iranian military ambition has influential adherents.

"It's a misunderstanding to believe you can bring security to this region without Iran and by demonizing Iran and its identity," says Mohammad Hadi Semati, a political scientist at Tehran University. "This has produced a marriage of convenience between hard-liners in Iran, Washington and Tel Aviv."

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