Iran's nuclear challenge: deter, not antagonize

Surrounded by hostile neighbors, Iran is a nation under constant diplomatic - and miliary - pressure. But while its quest for regional security may have led it to quietly explore weapons of mass destruction, that exploration has led it into the jaws of US criticism. Now that the US has declared war on terrorism and pronounced Iran, Iraq, and North Korea an "axis of evil," such a threat perception in Washington could yield serious consequences.

Iran is stuck in a strategic Catch 22, Western and Iranian analysts say. On one hand, it wants to portray itself as an indomitable regional power. On the other, it wants to avoid the wrath of Pentagon planners. But incur the wrath of the US it has. Washington, backed by Israel, charges that Tehran is "aggressively" pursuing weapons of mass destruction and the long-range missiles to deliver them.

Of all Washington's concerns, those of Iran's possible nuclear ambitions top the list. The CIA in early 2000 determined - controversially - that Iran was already capable of building a nuclear weapon. Just as controversial, among analysts and diplomats, a 1998 commission headed by now Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld found that Iranian missiles could cause "major destruction" to the US "within five years."

Having already declared its interest in effecting "regime change" in Iraq, a negative US assessment about Iranian intentions could pave the way for powerful US action. Israel's 1981 airstrike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor provides a window into one possible course of action for the US - or its close ally, Israel - if they decide that Iran presents a nuclear threat. Iran's reformist President Mohammad Khatami says Iran is interested only in civilian nuclear power, and has repeatedly called for the Mideast to be turned into a zone free of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

"It's better for the American administration to decide among themselves if they want to raise the flag of war, or of dialogue," Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said this week. "America believes it is the only source of right and wrong."

Indeed, independent assessments of Iran's abilities are often at odds with official US rhetoric. But the country may have reasons entirely separate from its rivalry with the US and Israel to research weapons of mass destruction.

"Iran has 15 neighbors and no friends, and these neighbors are not the most charming," says a Western diplomat in Tehran. "They know how weak they are. They need a smokescreen - and to give the impression that it's terribly dangerous behind it."

The easiest way to create such a deterrent, the diplomat says, is to "build up a rocket program that flies,... and then leave in doubt that what you put in it is not TNT."

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