Behind Mideast escalation

This toll has prompted vociferous criticism of Sharon in the Israeli media, generally on the theme that he lacks a vision for where the conflict is going. Perhaps more significant to the Palestinians, however, is the growing dissent from other quarters: 270 Israeli military reservists have signed a letter refusing to serve in the territories on moral grounds. A prestigious, if somewhat dovish, group of former military and intelligence officers has said it will begin a campaign advocating Israel's unilateral withdrawal from much of the Gaza Strip and West Bank.

Sharon, however, appears undeterred from a course of action that seems to include little more than using force to dissuade the Palestinians from using force. Avraham Diskin, a political science professor at Hebrew University, sums up the prime minister's approach to the Palestinians this way: "If they're OK, you have to be OK; if not, you have to beat them as hard as you can."

Few observers would dispute Sharon's loyalty to the second principle, but his willingness to abide by the first is open to interpretation. On Jan. 14 Israel assassinated a Palestinian militant named Raed al-Karmi in the West Bank town of Tulkarem, an event that is widely considered to have derailed a cease-fire that Arafat joined in earnest in mid-December.

Mark Heller, of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, says he understands that opportunities for Israel's security forces to hit a known militant such as Karmi are scarce. But in this case and in retrospect, he adds, "they could have considered holding off for a while."

The Karmi assassination is seen as Exhibit A in the argument that Sharon has done too little to support the steps that Arafat has taken to calm the situation in accordance with Israeli and US demands. Sharon has instead insisted that Israel would not negotiate under fire and that a week of absolute quiet had to precede any Israeli actions to shore up a ceasefire. Palestinians, Israeli leftists, and many diplomats have argued for months that Arafat cannot sustain a cease-fire without Israeli help: mainly an end to assassinations of Palestinian militants and an easing of the Israeli military presence in the Palestinian territories. Such steps would have angered the prime minister's rightist supporters, who constitute the bulk of his backing.

Although Sharon is unlikely to change course significantly, says Mr. Diskin, it is too much to say the prime minister has no plan, arguing that he recognizes that he must preserve Israel's security and its predominately Jewish demography. It is an accepted truth that achieving those ends means withdrawing from the Palestinian territories - eventually. "You cannot withdraw and do it in a way that proves to the other side that attrition was successful," Diskin says, reiterating a common Israeli criticism of the Lebanon pull-out.

An aversion to the appearance of weakness may account for Israel's reaction to the killing of the six soldiers: raids and strikes that killed at least 15 Palestinians, including 12 policemen, two gunmen, and a civilian, at press time yesterday.

These reprisals capped a bloody seven days. In addition to the 17 Israelis killed during the period, The Associated Press says 45 Palestinians died as a result of the conflict, including nine civilians. Since the conflict began in September 2000, more than 1,200 people have been killed, some three-quarters of them Palestinian.

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