Beneath Burma's Jurassic shell

The third reason to reexamine Western policy toward Burma is concern for the physical and intellectual survival of the people, endangered by falling living standards. Furthermore, if the Afghanistan experience has offered any lesson, it is that when a country hits bottom, it may become prey to scourges whose effects go beyond its borders. (For starters, Burma has overtaken Afghanistan as an opium producer and exporter in recent years.)

If one listens to the foreign non-governmental organizations, the international government agencies working here, and to the Burmese people in Burma, one must conclude that there can and ought to be a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Burma. However, this is a maverick idea likely to provoke many a frown or raised eyebrow.

The arguments against more humanitarian aid are well known. Chief among them is that Aung San Suu Kyi herself has opposed aid in the past. But recently "The Lady" has been privately suggesting that, with the right oversight, humanitarian aid is welcome. She cannot openly call for it, because she might undermine or distract from the larger goal of restoring democracy.

The other arguments against humanitarian aid for Burma are that it will legitimatize the dictators' illegal hold on power; it will be diverted or stolen; it will reward fake local nongovernmental organizations involved in its distribution. Those arguments are valid in all similar situations. But strict oversight, well-defined rules of operation, and a strong information campaign about the sources and objectives of the aid may minimize the damage.

All international nongovernmental groups have had to weigh carefully the pros and cons of working here. They have all responded with a definite yes.

What's more, last June eight UN agencies working in Burma announced that the country is "on the brink of a humanitarian crisis" and asked for "a dramatic overhaul of budget allocation" to Burma because "the nature and magnitude of the humanitarian situation does not permit delaying until the political situation evolves."

And what do the people of Burma think? The vox pop. cannot be read publicly. Overzealous censorship screens every printed word, even calendars and food wrappings. But asked privately, dissidents who respect Ms. Suu Kyi all say that humanitarian aid should be increased.

I will be clear: Proponents (both Burmese and non-Burmese) of increased humanitarian aid do not suggest abandoning the political battle for the restoration of democracy. But as an expert on HIV/AIDS who worked here put it: "The stick does not work. The international community has a moral duty to the people of the country to try the carrot."

• Anna Husarska is a Paris-based journalist and political analyst.

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