Elections play key role in India's war footing

The Hindu nationalist BJP rose to power in the 1990s largely due to the support from Uttar Pradesh region. An aspirant middle-class urban- voter base here was electrified by the BJP's heady message of a muscular Hindu "awakening" that would restore India to its former greatness.

Weeks after winning office in spring 1998, Mr. Vajpayee ordered the test of two nuclear devices - breaking India's long- standing refusal to "go nuclear." The following month, Pakistan tested as well. Last month, after the Parliament attack by alleged Pakistan-based militants, India responded with the largest military deployment in 30 years.

Indian leaders equated the Dec. 13 attack with the Sept. 11 World Trade Center attacks. American and British diplomats, fearing a war between the nuclear rivals - one that could impact US-led operations in Afghanistan - spent weeks talking the sides down. The dynamics seemed to culminate on Jan. 12, with a historic speech by Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, to reverse the tide of "jihadi" elements in his society, and with the detention of some 1,500 Islamic radicals in Pakistan.

Given Pakistan's military assistance to US forces, and the domestic task of reversing years of a "Talibanizing" of Pakistani society, few analysts feel Pakistan is in a position to foment a war. Yet Indian leaders, who cautiously praising General Musharraf, still take a wait-and-see attitude on cross-border operations and imply that the Army will remain deployed for "a couple of months," according to Home Minister L.K. Advani.

The US dispatched Gen. Tommy Franks to Islamabad and Delhi for more talks this past week after India's missile test - broadcast on Indian TV nationwide - caused bitter words from Islamabad.

In the past year, rank and file Uttar Pradesh voters have been disillusioned with the BJP. Partly the problem is corruption. The BJP displaced the age-old patronage-laden Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh largely with promises of clean hands and incorruptible candidates. Yet last year the BJP chief minister had to resign after a series of scandals, including one involving million-dollar "tea parties." Observers credit new Uttar Pradesh chief minister Rajnath Singh for restoring discipline in the BJP.

The Samajwadi Party, currently in front, has featured its own vote magnet - film star Amitabh Bachchan, known recently as the host of India's version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" The Congress Party, the original "freedom struggle" party, is bouncing back and has turned to what one observor called "the ultimate weapon" - Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, daughter of the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Currently, the BJP's main "trump card" in Uttar Pradesh, say sources in Delhi, is a list of 20 terrorists who the Indian government says reside in Pakistan. India is pressuring Pakistan to quickly turn over 14 of the terrorists who are not Pakistani nationals, including Ibrahim Dawood, allegedly responsible for the bombing of the Bombay Stock Exchange in 1993.

"If they [the BJP] can get even a handful of those terrorists extradited, it would legitimize everything India has been saying about Pakistan for 10 years," says a Delhi-based official with a leading international organization. "It would be the kind of triumph that could swing the vote in Uttar Pradesh."

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