After 9/11, the body politic tilts to conservatism

In the short term, all this could create a political climate more friendly to Republicans. Significantly, a new Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll shows that while Democrats had a nine-point lead in party identification - meaning more people identified themselves as Democrats - last August, Republicans have made gains since Sept. 11. Now, voters are evenly split.

One reason for this shift may simply be that Mr. Bush has proved to be an extremely popular wartime president. During the boom years of the Clinton administration, analysts say, the public began to view the office of the president as almost irrelevant. But now, the events of Sept. 11 have "reestablished the president," says Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster. "And he happens to be a Republican."

Mr. Ciruli points out that Mr. Bush's approval ratings remain extremely high four months after the attacks - even as the public's concern about the threat of terrorism is diminishing. "Bush has gained a level of public support for a length of time that indicates it's more than just doing a good job - that people may have bonded here," he says.

Of course, he adds, this won't necessarily lead to Republican gains in Congress: Presidential coattails are notoriously short. But it could allow Bush to set the political mood for the country, in the manner of other popular presidents such as Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt.

Still, some observers say that, whatever shift might be under way, it's likely to be short-lived. Even FDR saw his party lose seats in Congress as soon as the war ended.

"These kinds of events and challenges do have an impact, but it's interesting how we get back to fundamental domestic issues pretty quickly," says former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. He points out that already, the two parties in Washington are arguing over an economic-stimulus package.

Indeed, some analysts see the effects of Sept. 11 as transcending, rather than shaping, ideology. "Sept. 11 is likely to make an overall impression on all Americans, without changing the distribution of party or ideology," says political commentator Bill Schneider. "Ideology comes out of divisiveness, like the '60s or Clinton," he says. "The one thing about this entire conflict is, it is not divisive."

While Sept. 11 may not immediately change Americans' views on domestic issues like how to provide healthcare or help the economy, it has altered the nation's priorities - and may, in the long run, shape domestic politics in more subtle ways.

Professor King agrees that, whereas Vietnam and Watergate tended to have a polarizing effect on past generations, Sept. 11 is an event around which the entire country has essentially united. But this, too, can have a political impact: "Instead of polarizing or dividing a generation, this will give them a common vision or a common set of issues that we need to pay attention to," he says.

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