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Terror war hits next row of hurdles

Tension between Pakistan and India presents thorny problems.



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By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor / December 20, 2001

WASHINGTON

The waning drone of B-52s over Afghanistan is signaling a new and in some ways trickier phase of the US war on international terrorism - at least on the diplomatic front.

As complex as the campaign in Afghanistan has been, it was still in essence a battle with a pariah regime whose only ally was an international terrorist group. But now, with the hunt for Al Qaeda leaders and the terrorist network that supports them moving beyond Afghan borders, the United States faces a new set of daunting challenges:

• How does the US keep the pressure on Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf to pursue Al Qaeda, without igniting a far more serious clash between Pakistan and nuclear rival India?

• How much on-the-ground cooperation - or resistance - will the US encounter as it now enters nations such as Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia in search of Al Qaeda remnants?

• Can the US make a move against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein without shattering the international coalition Washington needs to fight the long-term war on terrorism?

Looking out over the coming days and weeks, some experts see promising signs for the US. Its military success in Afghanistan has translated into leverage against other countries with suspected terrorist activity, and that is already yielding some benefits.

Yemen, for example, took military action this week against suspected Al Qaeda militants. Local analysts said the strikes were designed to preempt US military action.

US officials lauded Yemen's action, which appeared to be the biggest anti-Al Qaeda operation by an Arab country since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Tuesday that US officials "have been urging the Yemenis to do more" about Al Qaeda training camps and suspected Al Qaeda operatives in the country.

The situation in Somalia could also turn in the US favor. Somali officials, who do not control all the African country's territory, say that international assistance would help eliminate any terrorist presence.

At a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, European officials briefed by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Somalia could be the next US target. Mr. Rumsfeld said that in addition to Yemen, Sudan also has active Al Qaeda cells, and Somalia has hosted its leaders.

More-worrisome hot spots

As these events play out, however, the antiterrorism effort confronts several other hot spots that are much more worrisome - most notably the India-Pakistan conflict, which has popped up like a bad surprise.

"On one hand, the next phase of this war will focus on places like Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Libya - places where by and large diplomatic pressure will be enough to get the action the US requires," says Lawrence Korb, a former Pentagon official and now vice president of the Council of Foreign Relations in New York. "But the real problem is going to be the situation between Pakistan and India."

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