Islam rising: US challenge

When the last Taliban fighter retreats into the mountains of Afghanistan and a new government is established in Kabul, the United States and its supporters in the war on terrorism will undoubtedly claim victory. But in the long term, Osama bin Laden is likely to be only a footnote in the history of conflicts between East and West.

The more profound challenge facing the US is the broad-based Islamization of societies - ordinary Muslims searching for the path toward religious purity. Islamization of these societies has spurred opposition to their respective governments, and because the US supports these governments, it has indirectly fostered anti-American sentiment.

Islamization is in full bloom in Egypt, where it began about 30 years ago, and in other countries and regions, such as Pakistan and the Gaza Strip. In other states, the rise in Islamist sentiment remains in an early stage, but will undoubtedly grow. In Turkey, the grass-roots Islamic movement is groping for a place in the background of the overpowering Kemalist state, which represses most forms of public religious expression.

Similarly, the authoritarian government of Uzbekistan is trying to stem a budding Islamic tide, as popular religious schools emerge from the shadows.

Millions of mainstream Muslim activists, embarrassed that Mr. bin Laden unleashed his brutal war in the name of Islam, could nonetheless use this conflict to their advantage. With governments in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan under more pressure to crack down on Islamic militancy, moderate Islamists can be expected to seize upon this political opening.

For years, a fundamental dynamic has operated between nation-states in the Islamic world and their citizens: When the state becomes more repressive in response to religious extremism, moderate activists gain popularity by offering themselves as a political alternative. Generally, the rebellious discourse of the militant fringe resonates in the mainstream and revives the lists of grievances among society as a whole.

The now-famous question of Sept. 11 - Why do they hate us? - was always misplaced. The more pressing issue, from Casablanca to Karachi, is: Why do so many Muslims, particularly middle-class professionals, see the attacks as an understandable response to the frustration the Islamic world feels about US behavior?

Widespread demonstrations in many Islamic countries were misinterpreted as a seal of approval for violence. Rather, bin Laden's attack was a wake-up call that brought out the crowds.

Bin Laden's primary grievance is US support for repressive governments, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He shares the belief with many mainstream Islamic activists that, if not for this US support, Muslims would be more in control of their destinies.

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