Massive food aid as a tool of diplomacy

The success so far of the humanitarian effort is reflected in the fact that international leaders have been able to turn to the longer-term task of rebuilding a failed state that is Asia's poorest country. Earlier this week, aid organizations and aid officials from more than two dozen countries met here to begin mapping out Afghanistan's reconstruction - a daunting task expected to cost more than $1 billion a year over the next half decade.

Although the events of Sept. 11 and a "sudden turn in the war" mean that international political attention is "focused today," says Mark Malloch Brown, administrator of the UN Development Program, the big need is for long-term commitments. He says a series of international meetings, culminating in a January ministerial conference in Japan, will seek to lock mostly Western donors into commitments for rebuilding the country - from roads to viable governing institutions.

In the meantime, aid workers are cautiously optimistic that the worst can be avoided this winter.

"We should have the food we need. The problem now is increased lawlessness on the roads," says Khaled Mansour, chief coordinator for the WFP in Islamabad, Pakistan. The rout of the Taliban across the northern half of Afghanistan has allowed bandits to reemerge on many of the country's vital highways. In fact, bandits are blamed for the killing of four foreign journalists earlier this week.

"Since the fall of Kabul, the job hasn't gotten easier, but harder," says Peter Bell, president of CARE USA in Atlanta. "The situation remains volatile," he says, "so we need to run scared about getting in a steady supply over the next few months."

Last week, security concerns had become so bad that vital commercial truckers refused for eight days to drive into Afghanistan. But Mr. Mansour says the WFP sent in six of its own trucks as a test, and they safely arrived in Kabul Tuesday, so the commercial drivers were reassured about returning.

No matter how successful the aid effort this year, however, next year is almost sure to present a crisis as well. Afghanistan needs an estimated 400,000 tons of seed annually for crops, notes USAID's Natsios, but the crisis has reduced stocks to just 10,000 tons.

Such indicators of the challenges on the horizon suggest to experts that the real test of success or failure will be the readiness of donors to see Afghanistan through to recovery. "The ultimate judgment of [US] intentions will be made over the degree of commitment to stay the course," says Joseph Montville, a preventive diplomacy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here.

"Much of the Muslim world is watching," he says. "It's hard to sympathize with the Taliban when their own people are celebrating their retreat. But they also want to see if the world has learned something from the past, or resorts to leaving without solving anything."

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