Arafat's historic support wanes

Even so, voters at a student election at An-Najah University in Nablus last week overwhelmingly favored candidates from the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas. Fatah's support on campus dropped from 44 percent to 35 percent.

In order for even a cease-fire to succeed, Barghouti says, a "new atmosphere" is needed. Arafat "can't just say to people, after 14 months of intifada [uprising], of sacrifices ... 'here's a cease-fire.' He has to offer something to the Palestinian people." By "something" Barghouti means a "political plan" that would make real the promise of Palestinian independence.

Rajoub's "something" is more immediate. The preventative security chief says three things are necessary for a successful cease-fire: an Israeli withdrawal from areas of Palestinian autonomy, a halt to Israel's tactic of assassinating Palestinians it accuses of plotting attacks, and an easing of the "closure" that sharply restricts Palestinians' freedom of movement.

The contrast between the visions of these two men says something about the choice Arafat faces.

Barghouti, a diminutive man with a broad face and raspy voice, is first and foremost a politician. His vocal support for the intifada has boosted his popularity, and he may not want to see it curtailed in favor of negotiations.

Rajoub, a burly linebacker-type who favors well-tailored suits, is an enforcer, a commander of men-at-arms. If the Israelis withdrew from Palestinian areas, stopped "targeted killings," and eased their blockades, Rajoub's job would be easier, both politically and practically.

Arafat may want to bring along the Palestinian mainstream the Barghouti way - by wresting some sort of prize from the Israelis ahead of negotiations - but Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon seems unwilling to consider such a step. Another option is the Rajoub way - using stern measures to contain Palestinian frustration until talks bear fruit.

The depth of Fatah's estrangement from the leadership is unclear, and it may be that Arafat has a deep enough reservoir of support to bring the organization with him despite internal disgruntlements. Bethlehem University's Hassassian argues at first that Arafat "can buckle [Barghouti's] mouth," but later asserts that a rebellious or divided Fatah will force the Palestinian leader to do something to restore his legitimacy.

Like many liberal-minded Palestinians, Hassassian says that elections are in order. "We need a united front that is strong enough to put our aspirations in concrete terms.... We are not ready for negotiations today," he says. Arafat's mandate as president of the PA expired last year, as did the terms of members of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Hussam Shaheen, a Fatah youth leader, says elections are not appropriate because they would exclude Palestinians in the diaspora. But he does want to see a revival of the more inclusive Palestine Liberation Organization. "We should meet as Palestinians and agree on a national agenda," he says.

Page: 1 | 2