Disarmament's new look: fewer warheads, no treaty

"Current levels of our nuclear forces do not reflect today's strategic realities," concluded Bush.

But Tuesday's reduction pledges left a number of important issues unaddressed, say some nuclear experts. Among them may be the actual warhead number US officials envision for the future.

That's because Bush used the phrase "operationally deployed" weapons. Several hundred warheads are being refurbished or stored at any one time, and it's not clear whether they will be counted as part of the stockpile, as they have been in the past. Furthermore, it holds out the prospect that large numbers of warheads could simply be unbolted from delivery vehicles and stored somewhere, awaiting a day when rising tensions might necessitate their redeployment.

"Will those warheads simply go into a strategic reserve? Look out for fuzzy math here," says Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.

Putin may be of similar mind. He did propose reductions in Russia's arsenal that would proportionally match the US cuts. But he also appeared to insist on them being accompanied by written agreements that would address the verification of what had happened, and perhaps ensure it could never be undone.

"Today, the world is far from having international relations based on trust," said Putin in remarks at the Russian Embassy on Tuesday evening. "That is why it's so important today to rely on the existing foundation of treaties and agreements in the arms-control ... area."

It remains to be seen how important this objection could become. Would Russia really hold on to some warheads if the US refuses to enter into some form of written pact on the subject? Would the US risk that happening?

While US and Russia relations now appear as warm as at any time since World War II, it's only a nascent friendship, say some US experts. There are many ways it could sour. Why not hammer out a quick weapons-cut pact?

"The president should be locking in historically low nuclear-weapons rates," says Joseph Cirincione, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "Instead, he's opting for a flexible warhead 'mortgage' that could go up or down."

But the issue of missile defenses would surely complicate any attempt at getting warhead reductions in writing. US officials appear no closer to obtaining Russian agreement with the Bush-administration view that the ABM Treaty is an impediment to the necessary self-defense of an antimissile shield.

Bush seemed to acknowledge as much when he said that "we will continue dialogue and discussions about the ABM Treaty so that we may be able to develop a new strategic framework that enables both of us to meet the threats of the 21st century."

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