Hurdles to building a stable Afghan regime

To help smooth relations between the country's groups, the US dispatched its recently named special envoy, James Dobbins, to Pakistan to meet today with opposition leaders from Afghanistan's Pashtun population. The Pashtuns are dominant in the Taliban-held south and oppose any overarching government role for the alliance, with its Uzbek and Tajik majorities.

Meanwhile, some contradictory signals from alliance leaders in Kabul are troubling the diplomatic process. The alliance continues to claim it backs the idea of an interim government that would be broad-based and include all the country's political factions except the Taliban. But at the same time, alliance officials were setting up yesterday in government ministry buildings. In some cases, ministerial chairs were being occupied by former ministers who had been ousted by the Taliban victory in 1996.

Then, too, alliance leaders claim they support the idea from the UN's Brahimi for a broad council to set up a provisional government. But the alliance is resisting suggestions, including from the US, that such a council convene outside Kabul and preferably outside the country.

Such contradictions only make the quick creation of an inclusive provisional government more important, experts say. "The longer the Northern Alliance is by itself and running things unobstructed, the more difficult it will be for [the US and other international powers] to impose a broad post-Taliban regime," says Jack Goldstone, a specialist in nation-building at the University of California at Davis.

An international security force could help stave off efforts by the alliance to consolidate its power, but even a force made up largely of troops from Muslim countries would pose certain threats. "It would be essential that such a force remain strictly under a UN umbrella," says David Forte, an expert in Islamic law at Cleveland State University. "Otherwise, you could have Islamic regimes seizing the opportunity to further their own political agendas."

Skepticism about alliance intentions has still others cautioning about what lies ahead.

History suggests the Taliban are "saving their bullets for another day" in retreating south, says Andrew Kuchins, a Russia and South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here. The alliance's past actions and initial behavior in victory are also worrisome, he adds - as is talk of a central provisional government. "There's no reason to be optimistic about a government with central authorities," Mr. Kuchins says. Afghanistan's history begs for "some kind of confederation, with far more authority to the regions and tribal groups."

Still, Mr. Goldstone says there is one reason to be optimistic about the alliance this time: Its leaders know they got where they are with outside help. "They know very well that if they act up, that support can be withdrawn."

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