War, surprisingly, opens diplomatic doors

Now, the US is carrying on talks with Iran and Syria, as noted by Secretary of State Colin Powell last week in remarks to the National Association of Manufacturers. "I think some new opportunities may be presenting themselves," he said.

Some opportunities are already becoming evident. For one, Iran recently decided to pull a large number of military officials out of Lebanon, Sudan, and Bosnia. Those in Lebanon had been working for years with Hizbullah, according to intelligence sources, and that move may resonate with the US, which considers Hizbullah a terrorist organization - although Iran still backs Hizbullah financially.

Another development, Iran's offer to rescue any US pilots downed in its territory, is "quite extraordinary," says Stephen Cohen, a Central Asia expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Still, such assistance is considerably less than other neighboring countries have offered. And Mr. Cohen says the US should move cautiously, with the idea of advancing Iran's moderate forces while containing the country's destabilizing impact in the region.

Iran's moves may be partially motivated by its interest in developing the country's potential as an oil and gas power. Iranian leaders have been encouraged by new signals from the US, which until recently supported financially the anti-Iranian Taliban. Iran vehemently opposes the Taliban, whose Sunni form of Islam is opposed to Iran's Shia branch of the religion. Iranians also detest Osama bin Laden as a dangerous carpetbagger in the region.

At the very least, the US could benefit from public signs of better relations with Iran at a time when it's dropping bombs on another Islamic country. Outside Afghanistan, "Iran has the only Islamic regime in the region, so it would help to defuse a bit the claims that the US is really carrying out a religious or civilizational conflict," Mr. Quandt says.

Responding to some suggestions that the US curry favor with Iran in preparation for possible future strikes against Iraq in the war on terrorism, Mr. Cohen says, "it would be vastly premature to contemplate giving up our dual-containment policy" affecting both Iran and Iraq.

Despite Iran's enmity toward Saddam Hussein, its leaders have little reason to favor a tougher US stance with Iraq. "Iran would probably be delighted if a silver bullet were finally discovered [to prove a link to Mr. bin Laden's Al Qaeda organization] to rid the neighborhood of Saddam Hussein," says Quandt, "but then there's the prospect of US troops pummeling another nearby regime for six months. I don't think Iran wants to see US power demonstrated in such close proximity in that manner."

Still, as the US takes a big-picture look at the Middle East region, experts say it's only being smart to pursue improved relations with a large country such as Iran - especially as that might offset what are looking like more problematic relations with two other "big" players in the region: Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

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