Rebels attempting first big gains

With guidance from American commandos on the ground and intensified airstrikes at Taliban frontline positions, Afghan rebels say they will launch an offensive this weekend to take the strategic northern city of Mazar-e Sharif.

The Northern Alliance - a loose group of Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara fighters - is reported to have advanced to within five miles of the Mazar-e Sharif airport to the southeast and within 30 miles to the southwest.

The information could not be independently verified. But if true, this marks the first progress made by the 100 or so US Special Forces troops the Pentagon says are now in at least four locations in Afghanistan to help rebel groups who, officials say, sometimes advance against Taliban tanks on horseback.

"The question is: Is this the beginning of a military push that is going to inexorably alter the political map of Afghanistan?" says John Pike, a Virginia-based defense analyst and head of GlobalSecurity.com. "Or is it a brief lunge in the next 10 days, to make some symbolic gains before winter and [the Islamic holy month of] Ramadan?"

The answer is likely to determine the future path of Washington's declared war against terrorism in Afghanistan, as failure so far of the air campaign to dislodge the radical Islamic Taliban is increasing speculation about the possible deployment of US ground troops next spring.

Stepped up US bombing of three Taliban fronts - near Mazar-e Sharif, along the Taloqan front in the northeast, and north of Kabul - appear aimed at narrowing the gap between the Pentagon's underestimation of Taliban resistance, and overestimation of rebel abilities.

"The American bombardment is very effective," says Qudratullah Hurmat, an aide to Mohamad Atah, one of three alliance generals on the front line. "In the next two or three days, we will start our attack."

Between 15 to 20 Americans on that front have been instrumental in getting the rebel act together and in pin-pointing US bombing raids, he says. US helicopters began arriving a week ago to supply this isolated rebel pocket with ammunition and blankets.

Yonus Qanoni, one of the top three civilian leaders of the alliance, confirmed yesterday that a push on Mazar-e Sharif is imminent. "It's difficult to predict how long, but we're hoping to capture it within one week," he said.

Taking the city would be a coup for American efforts to support the rebels, whose military capacity until now has been lackluster at best. Control of the city would provide new supply routes and a border for the rebels, while cutting off Taliban lines to the west.

Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor), an internet analysis group with a long track record of making predictions, notes that the road to neighboring Uzbekistan, just north of Mazar, "could be used as an invasion route for US ground forces."

But alliance fighters are outnumbered 3 to 1 by the Taliban. And a Taliban spokesman in the capital, Kabul, reportedly denied the loss of the four districts south of Mazar claimed by the alliance, and said that 500 reinforcements were being sent to the north.

US officials describe the fighting as very fluid south of Mazar-e Sharif, and say they are trying to supply alliance units there that are exceptionally short of ammunition and food. American provision of everything from ammo, blankets, cold-weather gear - and even fodder for horses - has begun to arrive by helicopter, and is sometimes delivered by mule.

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