US readies for next big threats

As authorities work to uncover the source of the anthrax that is tainting a growing number of mail facilities from the US Supreme Court to the CIA, they are simultaneously facing an even more daunting task: preparing for what might come next.

The seriousness of the anthrax threat and concerns that Al Qaeda cells may be planning another wave of attacks are making the effort to keep dangerous materials out of the hands of terrorists in the first place an urgent national-security priority.

Guarding against every potential threat may well be impossible - there are simply too many ways terrorists might strike. Good intelligence will be essential to thwarting any attack. But experts say the US can take steps to prevent some of the most dangerous threats through tighter security at biological, chemical, and nuclear plants worldwide.

In the case of smuggled nuclear material, better screening at ports and airports might help. And a fast and effective response can greatly minimize and contain the damage in the case of a biological or chemical attack.

"We detected everything that was going to happen at the millennium, and nothing happened. That was wonderful," says Fred Iklé, a former undersecretary of Defense in the Reagan administration. "We did not detect things before Sept. 11. So it's a risk you cannot clearly define. You can, however, reduce it."

The need for unprecedented vigilance is becoming clearer in the wake of the bioterror attack. The anthrax sent to Sen. Tom Daschle - now characterized as unusually fine and even having its electrostatic charge removed - suggests a sophisticated culprit.

While this could be anyone from a lone microbiologist working in a well-equipped lab to a state-sponsored terrorist group, it means the attacker may also harbor the ability to carry out a broader biological assault, using either anthrax or another agent, such as smallpox.

Other scenarios officials are concerned about range from a possible chemical attack to poisoning of the nation's food supply (Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson has said he is "more fearful" about the food supply than anything else) to a cyberattack - what experts refer to as a "weapon of mass disruption."

Recently, unconfirmed reports have suggested that Osama bin Laden's network may even possess radioactive material, adding to concerns about an eventual nuclear attack.

One of the biggest threats, experts agree, is the lack of security at weapons facilities in the former Soviet Union. At many Russian plants, few safeguards exist to prevent a worker from stealing materials. Under communism, this didn't matter, because no one could leave the country, and any worker meeting with a foreigner would be closely watched by the KGB. Now it's a major danger.

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