New snags in US-Saudi ties play to bin Laden

Somewhere in the dark recesses of an Afghan cave, Osama bin Laden may be grinning.

More than a month after the terror attacks in New York and Washington, international repercussions are shaking the very foundation of the house of Saud.

US relations with Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil producer, beset with rising Islamic radicalism and US criticism for lack of cooperation against terrorism - are severely strained.

Mr. bin Laden himself might have written such a script to set the stage for a combined assault to topple the royal family of Saudi Arabia and end the US military presence in the Persian Gulf. But the tense relations between Washington and Riyadh are largely the fault of Americans and Saudis who seem, inexplicably, to be playing into bin Laden's grand scheme.

"If the terrorists were to read this stuff, they would like it," says Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. He says the terrorists must be thinking: "Not only did we inflict this heavy blow in Washington and New York, but we got those who were close friends to turn on each other."

With civilian casualties in Afghanistan mounting and the Islamic holy month of Ramadan fast approaching, the critical Muslim core of the US-led coalition against terrorism is growing increasingly alarmed about supporting what they see as open-ended carnage in a fellow-Islamic state.

Among those most concerned are bin Laden's No. 1 target, the king and ruling princes of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi royal family has demonstrated its capacity to survive difficult and dangerous challenges, including a November 1979 attempt by armed Muslim extremists to overthrow the Al Saud family by seizing the Grand Mosque in Mecca.

But some analysts say the Saudis have never faced such concerted opposition from so many different quarters at once - including harsh criticism from US senators about Saudi reluctance to cooperate fully in the terrorism war. In addition, the royal family can't be sure about the activities of several thousand Saudis who presumably have been trained and primed by bin Laden for martyrdom missions.

"They are in uncharted territory," says a long-time Saudi political analyst who asked not to be identified by name. "They are operating in an environment where they don't have solid ground under their feet."

Though there has been a series of recent missteps, they need not be fatal to US-Saudi relations, says F. Gregory Gause, a Middle East expert at the University of Vermont. "The underlying common interests between the US and Saudi Arabia are still there, but there is a growing sentiment of mistrust on both sides."

In the most basic terms, the common interests boil down to US access to a steady flow of oil in exchange for guaranteed security for Saudi Arabia from external military threats.

There is a secondary American interest as well. Over the past decade, the Saudis have spent an estimated $170 billion for military equipment. And last summer the Saudis awarded contracts potentially worth $50 billion to upgrade the kingdom's gas production facilities. The vast majority of those sales and contracts went to US companies.

The royal family's interest in authorizing such huge contracts stems in part from the ability to receive huge commissions for setting up the deals, government critics charge. And it has prompted some Saudis to wonder why, after spending billions on defense, are American military personnel still needed in the kingdom?

Mr. Gause says the recent tension in the US-Saudi relationship stems from a "disconnect" between the two. "Here in the states, people get the impression that we did the Saudis a favor back in 1990 [winning the Gulf War], and that now they are not repaying us," he says. But the Saudis don't view 1990 as having been a favor - rather it was a reflection of US-Saudi common interests, he says. They don't have a sense of common interest in the current fight against terrorism, Gause says, adding, "They seem to have a tough time realizing how important what happened on Sept. 11 is to us."

One key concern raised by several analysts is whether recent criticisms from US officials and the American media signal a genuine desire by Washington to undermine or abandon the royal family.

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