Setbacks in war against Taliban

But the political strategy is also in trouble. Privately, Pakistani officials and observers say the past three weeks have shown America's key weaknesses - the lack of hard intelligence, a cultural understanding, or knowledge of the conditions on the ground. In the eastern mountains, where the bulk of Afghanistan's population lives, guerrilla warriors have the advantage and the Taliban could conduct hit-and-run attacks long after their government falls. In order to defeat the Taliban in these conditions, the US would need to have the firm support of local populations. To gain that support, particularly among the ethnic Pashtun tribal leaders who are reported to be wavering in their support of the Taliban, America would need to offer something in return, especially the promise of continued safety from revenge attacks by pro-Taliban forces.

It is for this reason that the capture of top anti-Taliban leader Mr. Haq last week is such a public relations disaster. Haq, a member of the Pashtun ethnic majority and hero of the mujahideen war against the Soviets, returned to his native Afghanistan. Some relatives say he was on a "peace mission," while others say he had gone to Afghanistan to avenge the murders of his wife and daughter last year, in an attack attributed to Taliban supporters.

Abdul Qadir, a leader in the opposition-held town of Golbahar, says he was "surprised" that his brother had moved so quickly into Afghanistan, and had pleaded with him to delay his trip. He wanted them to enter their respective tribal areas together, to win over wavering Pashtuns from the Taliban.

"He could have mustered 2,000 or 3,000 warriors, but he came with only 25," Qadir says. "He was on a mission of peace, not to fight."

The Taliban, for their part, say Haq had come to launch an anti-Taliban rebellion in his home province of Nangrahar. Tipped off by their intelligence network along the border, the Taliban captured Haq within hours of his arrival and executed him that very day.

In addition, the Taliban claim they have Haq's list of names and phone numbers of tribal leaders and other Afghans presumed to be ready to join a post-Taliban government - including possibly members of the Taliban government. If true, more executions are likely to follow, and the American effort to create a broad-based government of Afghans will have suffered a devastating blow.

"Setback is an understatement. This is a fiasco, a debacle," says Rifaat Hussein, chairman of the Defense and Strategic Studies department at Quaid-I-Azam University in Islamabad. "In a way, this destroys the whole idea that if you engage with the Taliban, and play ball with them, you can find some moderate elements that you can work with. Now, short of the physical destruction of Afghanistan, there is no way to achieve the goals."

In this way, Haq's execution could be a turning point in the war, Hussein says, as the political option of negotiation and nation-building are set aside and the military option becomes the only viable option. But dropping the political option altogether may have massive repercussions in Pakistan, he adds.

"The hawks will say that without a full-scale military effort, there is no way to remove the Taliban," Hussein says. "But here in Pakistan, people say the military option hasn't produced any results after three weeks and the political option should move faster. With Haq's execution, this will definitely deter those who are thinking of leaving the Taliban," he says.

On Sunday, it was as if the Pentagon were reassessing their strategy in adherence to the old Chinese maxim: "No military plan survives contact with the enemy." It was eerily quiet across the Shomali Plain north of Kabul. Only one reconnaissance plane flew across the sky, residents of Raqi said, at six o'clock in the morning.

But even as people here buried their dead, picked through the debris for belongings, and began to rebuild their lives yesterday, they said they favored US military action - with more accuracy.

"They should know which village is Northern Alliance, and which village is Taliban, says Shahbuddin, who lives 100 yards away from the blast site. "The bombings should continue. But they should take time to show pilots which village is which."

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