From the ground up

Although armed National Guardsmen have been posted in the nation's airports, the nation's largest union of flight attendants, and two other smaller unions, recently criticized the current state of security. They called for the immediate implementation of tighter measures, including screening all checked baggage and every employee with access to secured areas.

"I think the cosmetic changes, such as having the National Guard, have left a great deal of people with the impression that every possible thing has been done," says Northwest Airlines flight attendant Danny Campbell, president of Teamsters Local 2000 in Bloomington, Minn.

"But they don't know all the mechanics in terms of how items get through security," he adds, "and all the various places that things can get through."

Delta Airlines Capt. Dennis Dolan, first vice-president of the Air Line Pilots Association, says that the flight attendants "have a right to be frustrated."

But in meetings with the Federal Aviation Administration and airline industry officials who are working to implement new security recommendations, he says, "I've never seen people get together and move things forward as fast as I have since September 11.

"A lot of good improvements are coming," says Captain Dolan, who says he is convinced that it's safe to fly. "The problem with a lot of [the needed fixes] is they can't be done quickly. But there are a lot of people working very hard to make these things happen. Every day that goes by, it gets better."

Even with new security measures in place and a public more willing to fly, the industry still faces long-term changes, shifts that began before the attacks.

After recovering from a downturn in the early 1990s, caused in part by the Gulf War, airlines enjoyed record profits and, according to some analysts, overextended themselves, buying too many planes and flying to too many markets.

As the economy slowed, and business travelers - who account for as much as 70 percent of airline profits - cut back on travel, some of the bigger airlines found themselves in financial trouble.

After Sept. 11, their outlook worsened. United's top executive predicted that airline's demise. Some analysts say that statement may have been intended in part to boost the carrier's leverage with labor unions.

Still, the shakeout may well mean bankruptcies for some airlines. Carriers like Southwest, analysts say, may well find opportunities to expand, as larger carriers cut back on routes.

And overall, they say, flying may become a lot more like bus travel - basic service that simply involves getting passengers from one point to another.

In that kind of environment, analysts note, factors such as on-time performance (controllable to some degree) and positive employee attitudes - both trademarks of Southwest Airlines - become even more important in building a successful airline.

"It's very difficult to reinvent yourself as a low-cost anything," says Hans Weber, a San Diego-based aviation consultant. "Normally, there's a process of creative destruction, like going bankrupt, that opens a door to something new. I'm not a pessimist about the industry," he says. "We need to fly. We want to fly. We'll continue to fly. We'll just be doing it a little bit differently."

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