Russia opens tough capitalist frontier

The Kremlin hopes that its upcoming bills will extend market conditions to the other 98 per cent of Russian lands. "Only private property can ensure that land will be redistributed in favor of the most effective owners," says Anatoly Manillia, deputy director of the Kremlin-linked Center for Political Research. "The lack of private property on land has been the major log jam in all our efforts to attract investment, fight corruption, and build a dynamic market economy."

Supporters say the law may lead to a tidal wave of investment, since rich Russians and foreigners, who will also gain the right to own land, will stop worrying about political instability and start

sinking money into Russian real estate.

With such an incentive, some of the estimated $200 billion in capital flight over the past decade could return, says Andrei Neschadin, executive director of the Expert Institute, an independent Moscow-based think tank. "The expansion of commercial activity, the growth of towns and cities, has long hinged upon this question," he says. "A normal market in land will eventually make us a normal country at last."

But little effort has been made to explain any of this to the population. The corrupt and disorderly privatizations of state enterprises over the past decade have left Russians skeptical and easy prey to Communist claims that another mass robbery of their national heritage is afoot.

"Even in Soviet times, people had lifelong tenure on the land they used for house, garden or dacha," says Yevgeny Kozlov, head of Kolomna's municipal land department. "Naturally, they are suspicious now that changes will only work against them. People remember how a few people became rich through privatization and the rest were impoverished, and they worry."

The Communists, who control almost half of the regional governments and about a third of parliament's seats, say private property will lead to mass dispossession of the poor and could trigger social strife. "Land sales will lead to an announcement of war throughout southern Russia," the country's bastion of conservatism, said Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov after the bill passed through the Duma last month.

Most observers agree that this round was merely a half-hearted rehearsal for the big battle that will come later this year, when the Kremlin plans to introduce a bill allowing the sale of agricultural land. For millions of mainly elderly Russians still trapped on Soviet-era collective farms, sudden changes in property relations could prove disastrous.

"Collective farms are barely functioning, yet they are the sole source of support for a lot of people around here," says Mr. Kozlov. "If the law is not fair, or not properly explained, there could be serious political trouble. People need to be shown decent choices, and given time to make up their minds. We can't rush into any revolutions in the countryside."

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