Divided loyalties in Palestine

Authorities decided to close off the Strip to the outside world on Tuesday. By Wednesday, Gaza, a densely populated coastal strip with a large Palestinian refugee population, had returned to relative normalcy, though Hamas predicts there will be more trouble if police prevent the public from releasing frustrations over the bombings of fellow Muslims.

Arafat's stance on Afghanistan could not be further away from that of Hamas. He has repeatedly offered to work together with the US to combat terrorism and has refrained from condemning the bombings of Afghanistan.

Ironically, in recent days, Arafat has emerged as one of the most pro-American voices in the Arab world. However, he will not be able to ignore street sentiment if the bombing campaign extends beyond Afghanistan to an Arab country, analysts believe. The PA leader, they say, has learned from his mistake of 1991, when he backed Iraq's Saddam Hussein, the losing side in the Gulf War. The tilt toward Baghdad was one reason he was excluded from a direct role in the postwar diplomacy.

The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US have created a "window" of opportunity for the Palestinians, says Ali Jarbawi, a professor at Bir Zeit University in the West Bank. Not only Bush, but also Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Italy's Silvio Berlusconi and Britain's Tony Blair have been stressing the need for diplomatic movement on the Palestinian issue. And even bin Laden's remarks about Palestine have helped the PA's cause by stressing that the lack of a solution to the Palestine issue is a cause of terrorism, says Jarbawi. "Everyone is saying that you have to pay attention to the Palestinian issue. This is an opening that can be utilized," Jarbawi says.

But for the strategy to work, Arafat will have to prove he can make good on his declaration three weeks ago of a cease-fire with Israeli forces.

Israel is extremely skeptical. Four people have been wounded in Palestinian attacks since Monday, and hawks in the cabinet of Ariel Sharon are pressing for sustained military strikes against the PA. Arafat's forces have arrested a handful of militants - too few in the Israeli view to prove their seriousness about stopping attacks by Hamas and the small militant group Islamic Jihad. Meanwhile, Palestinians point to continuing fatalities at the hands of the Israeli Army.

Sustaining the cease-fire would require the cooperation of Hamas. While the PA has been pressing for this in the name of national unity, Abu Shanab would say only that Hamas is constantly weighing whether it is an appropriate time or not to launch an "operation."

In Mr. Jarbawi's view, Hamas will bow to pressure for restraint in the short term. But if the US does not move quickly, if the tight Israeli control around Palestinian areas are not eased, and if "Sharon continues to hit Palestinians everywhere, then after a short while, not a matter of months,the people will become furious again. And no one will blame Hamas if it goes back to its old tactics."

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