Iran's rhetoric masks interests

In fact, Iran is keen to make the distinction between what it views as legitimate resistance movements and "real" terrorist groups, which attack civilian targets in enemy countries. It's a distinction Iranian representatives will emphasize as Muslim leaders meet at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Qatar today. Iran's support for the Shiite fundamentalist group Hizbullah in Lebanon, for instance, emanates from the highest level in Iran. The government has long admitted to supporting the Lebanese fighters, viewing them as a legitimate armed group resisting a foreign occupying force on its own territory.

But behind the public rhetoric Iran's planners are already discussing the makeup of a post-Taliban regime in Afghanistan. In substance, if not in form, their views match closely with those of the US, which advocates a transitional government led by Afghanistan's deposed king, Zahir Shah, in partnership with the opposition Northern Alliance.

"Iran can support an alliance between the Northern Alliance and Zahir Shah," said Mr. Leylaz. "For us, Zahir Shah is much better than the Taliban."

Iran, which admitted last week that it has directed covert military and logistical support to the embattled Northern Alliance, also backs a transitional government that would give way to what one Foreign Ministry official has described as "a broad-based government set up under UN auspices."

In part, Iran's neutrality is fueled by its intense dislike of the Taliban. Iran's Shia clerics view the hard-line Sunni Taliban as a creation of Pakistan's powerful intelligence service, the ISI, that has elevated the Sunni Pashtoon tribes over Iran's allies, the Shia Hazara tribe.

In addition, Iran has borne the economic cost of hosting some 2.4 million Afghan refugees. The refugees arrived when fleeing the 1979 Soviet invasion, but most are too afraid of the Taliban to return home.

Unlike Pakistan, however, which housed its Afghan refugees in dirt-poor camps in border regions, Iran allowed refugees to work, marry, and settle throughout the country. Many are now prosperous, giving them less reason to respond to the Taliban's call to arms.

Moreover, Iran still nurses a grievance over the murder of nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif in 1999 when Taliban forces rolled into the city. And Iran has suffered an upsurge in drug trafficking since gangs based in Afghanistan won virtual carte blanche from Taliban leaders in the late 1990s.

But Iranian officials also have their eye on long-term geopolitics. Iran's senior clerics carry some clout in the Islamic world, particularly among Shiites, who account for a quarter of the world's Muslims - a fact that prompted Britain's foreign minister, Jack Straw, to make the trip to Tehran late last month. Only Iran and Pakistan possess a functioning intelligence network in Afghanistan, dealing Tehran a strong hand in maintaining its line against US pressure.

Analysts are realizing that Iran could emerge from the Afghan crisis with its importance enhanced. "A change of government in Afghanistan could solve Iran's border problem, its refugee problem, and its drug problem," said the European diplomat. "And Iran wouldn't even have to lift a finger."

Furthermore, should Pakistan's military government come under increasing pressure from grassroots pro-Taliban activists, Iran is likely to emerge as a key voice of reason in the region.

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