On the trail of bin Laden's most likely hideouts

Rapid political and military changes in Afghanistan yield clues to possible location.

Where is Osama bin Laden? Intelligence sources in Pakistan have it that he has fled in recent days with his closest associates to a snowy nook, high up in the jagged peaks of the Pamir Mountains of northern Afghanistan. There, they say, the world's most wanted man has built, with his family's construction know-how, a bunker to outlast all bunkers.

Mr. bin Laden is said to have remodeled a former Soviet military installation into "the ultimate citadel," replete with modern conveniences and high-tech weaponry. The mountain hideaway, the story goes, also provides for a quick escape if needed.

Other sources, more official and possibly better informed, say this is utter bunk.

Truth be told, the unknowns surrounding the alleged mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center are only growing by the day, especially along the rugged hills and dusty villages lining the Afghan-Pakistan border. No one - except maybe a chosen few in bin Laden's Al Qaeda network and top Taliban government officials - has many real clues as to the Saudi-born multimillionaire's precise whereabouts.

Still, there are rapid-fire political and military changes going on inside Afghanistan that form an increasingly detailed picture of the most likely hiding spots.

This past week, Taliban officials admitted, after several denials, that they are aware of bin Laden's movements. In recent days, the hard-line Islamic regime has been trying desperately to secure its own support base - racing to cut deals with disaffected tribal leaders in areas under its control. According to Afghan sources with regular contacts inside the country, Taliban officials fear these tribal leaders might side with Western forces.

In a rare English-language statement, Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan Abdul Salam Zaeef yesterday said his government was "ready for negotiations" to prevent possible US-led military action. He repeated, however, that the Taliban would not hand over bin Laden without proof of his involvement in the Sept. 11 attacks.

Several former Afghan mujahideen fighters, who battled Soviet occupation in the 1980s but refused to join the Taliban, which seized power in 1996, say that cracks in the regime's control are making life more difficult for thousands Arabs and other foreign nationals living in Afghanistan. They say that the brewing troubles between Afghans and so-called Afghan Arabs make it highly unlikely that bin Laden has plans to hide out near Pakistan's Northwestern frontier, a former Taliban stronghold.

"Some of Mr. bin Laden's men are taking up positions north of the Khyber Pass along the border, but that is a military tactic to fight any would-be Western invaders in the thick, forested areas there," says Hamid Hamid, a former Afghan mujahideen commander. "Otherwise, the Taliban is loosening its grip on these areas and trying to pacify an angry public fed up with threats from the West."

A far more likely hideout for bin Laden, say other Afghan sources, is in the rugged mountains of Oruzgan province in the center of the country.

Oruzgan is due north of Kandahar, a city used as both a meeting place and a base by bin Laden's Al Qaeda network since he moved to Afghanistan from Sudan in 1996.

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