At crossroads, Putin looks West
Russia's president meets today with European leaders to discuss common enemy, new cooperation.
In the geopolitical aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a defining choice: keep to the isolationist instincts of his KGB past, or follow the dream of his hero, the Westward-gazing Peter the Great.
Mr. Putin is in Brussels today at Russia's annual summit with heads of the 15-member European Union. Their relationship has been deadlocked by seemingly intractable disputes over the Western military alliance NATO's expansion into East Europe, the Kremlin's brutal war against the secessionist region of Chechnya, and other issues.
But Western solidarity in the gathering campaign against international terrorism has presented Russia with a fundamental strategic choice - one that experts say Putin has decisively made in favor of siding with the US and its allies.
Although it may have been unthinkable barely a month ago, the door now seems open to broad military and security cooperation between Moscow and Washington, rapid Russian accession to the World Trade Organization, and perhaps, down the road, Russian membership in the EU and NATO.
"A new epoch burst upon the world when the terrorists attacked the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, and Putin was one of the first leaders to understand what it means," says Sergei Chugrov, an expert with the Institute of International Relations and World Economy, which trains Russian diplomats. "Russia will either drift into the margins of the global system, or it must drop its differences and move into the mainstream of Western life."
A great deal is at stake. By integrating Russia with the West, Putin, an ex-KGB agent, could achieve the vision of a czar he has professed to greatly admiring, Peter the Great, and foster Russia's development as a stable, modern, prosperous pillar of European civilization.
But Putin is also courting the ire of Russian nationalists and military hawks, who resent being roped into the ranks of the West and fear the penetration of US power into the heart of the former Soviet Union.
Another worry here is how Russia's 20 million Muslims - and far greater numbers in neighboring ex-Soviet republics - might react if looming American-led military operations in Afghanistan start to look like an anti-Islamic crusade.
"There is no doubt that Putin has made up his mind," says Mr. Chugrov. "But this policy will have to stand a long and tough testing period. There are no guarantees that it will survive."
Moscow-based defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer cautions: "All that is holding us [Moscow and Washington] together is a common enemy. We have a consensus only because it regards questions where it is hard to disagree."
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