In geopolitics, US shifts to Asia

"It will matter to Afghans if Pakistan supports the US," says Syed Kabir Ali Wasti, president of the Pakistan Muslim League. "Afghans don't care if NATO, the UN, or India support the US. But if their neighbors, their friends, a Muslim nation, supports America, that means something different."

Not all Asia's changes are happening at the epicenter of the war on terrorism. Japan, for example, for the first time since World War II, is considering a move to send an Aegis-equipped destroyer to back the US Navy in the Indian Ocean. The proposal, backed by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, could boost a nascent effort by the US and some Asian elites to forward a "NATO of the East" that would include South Korea, Japan, Australia, the US, Singapore, and, indirectly, Taiwan.

"What Japan is doing is a huge leap," says Derek Mitchell, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. "This is actually assisting the US in a military operation outside East Asia. It is a step toward collective self-defense."

Russian cooperation with the US could bring a symbolic as well as tangible end to the cold war - at the expense of separatist rebels in Chechnya. Both China and Russia would greatly benefit, in their strategic view, from a US-led operation that halted the spread of militant Islam to their borders.

Yet while quietly supporting the US, the Chinese are worried that, should the US war result in mass uprisings, China could be targeted by radicals in its Uighur Muslim population in the border province of Xinjiang. China has attempted for years to undermine Uighur separatist movements. It has conducted a policy of economic "engagement" with the Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan - while at the same time using a forum called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to coordinate "antiterrorist" efforts on its border.

"China wants a low profile," says Dr. Wang, "China doesn't want to be the focus of trouble between China and the Muslim world."

Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, will figure more prominently in US policy as places where traditionally moderate Muslim populations are being infused by new militants. "The key country is Indonesia," says Derek Mitchell of CSIS. "There are radical elements there, but it is also a potential opportunity as a place where moderate Islam can flourish."

The region's developing cultural divides are illustrated by violence in the runup to yesterday's general elections in Bangladesh. In recent years, the social order has been effected by harder-line, Taliban-inspired groups that decry the more-tolerant Bengali Muslim approach to life. They have attacked - sometimes violently - secular aid groups that help women and provide food and education.

The campaign has been the most violent in Bangladesh's 30-year history, claiming 150 lives in the past month. Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party has opposed development of extremist groups. Her traditional rival - Begum Khaleda Zia of the Nationalist Party - has not.

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