A new world focus on Central Asian states

Afghan rebels increasingly portray themselves as indispensible to America's declared war against terrorism, and those living in their territory have the message down pat.

"I saw Osama bin Laden on TV, and he's a bad person and very naughty," says Shamsoleh, an Afghan English student. "If I find bin Laden, I will cut off his head."

Not a surprising view, in this valley hamlet surrounded by bleak stone ridges.

The United Nations-recognized government of Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani "rules" from this picturesque town, but only over about 10 percent of the country.

His Northern Alliance - a coalition of fractious rebel groups - is fighting Taliban control over the rest of Afghanistan.

With the US threatening to attack the Taliban to press for the handover of Mr. bin Laden, its most notorious guest, Northern Alliance officials have firm ideas about what must be done.

"The US should consult us. If they don't, the results of this operation will be bad," says Col. Saleh Registani, Northern Alliance military attache to Moscow. "We are inside Afghanistan, and ready to help," he says, adding that "missile and air attacks are not enough. We need to collaborate."

But while a new US presence may prove a boon for some in Central Asia, analysts warn that any US misstep risks boosting instability in a region already renowned for poverty, Islamic militancy, and drug- and gun-running.

Another caveat: the US military focus on Afghanistan - and possible use of former Soviet bases in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - also cuts to the heart of Russia's sphere of influence.

"It remains to be seen how much Russia will willingly allow this to happen," says John Schoeberlein, head of the Forum for Central Asian Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. "I predict a major confrontation will develop between Russia and the Central Asian states, if they decide to go with the US."

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he is committed to the US-led antiterrorism coalition, and already Washington has expressed a newfound understanding of Russia's hardline tactics - including extensive human rights violations - against separatist rebels in Chechnya.

Russia also says it will boost its longstanding military and cash support for the Northern Alliance.

American officials are already in contact with the group, though its own three years in power in the early 1990s were marred by corruption and misrule, which helped fuel the spread of the Taliban.

President Putin yesterday spoke by telephone with the president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov. The chief staging post for the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is likely to be the focus of any US military presence. It has also been one of the former Soviet states most eager to snub its nose at its former masters in Moscow.

According to a Kremlin statement, the two leaders discussed "the situation taking shape in Afghanistan and around it, as well as practical issues of mutual action by both countries in the war on international terrorism."

The fiercely secular, authoritarian regime in Tashkent has been conducting its own crackdown on Muslims, shutting down mosques and arresting more than 5,000 people at one point for infractions as slight as growing a beard or wearing a religious hat.

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