History - and Greenspan - point to economic revival

He and some other economists now expect a snapback to to begin early in 2002 - rather than later this year.

Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel doesn't foresee a "serious" recession. As a member of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, he examined in 1998 the risks to the economy from the computer glitch dubbed the "Y2K bug."

His study reviewed 20 major disasters in the US between 1971 and 1995. They included riots in Miami in 1980, the Mount St. Helens eruption in the same year, and a 1993 winter storm affecting 24 Eastern states.

Diversion of resources to replace buildings, for example, had only "a limited impact on current sales and production," he found.

"The American economy is large, diverse, and resilient, and people will find ways around those disruptions...." Frankel noted in an annual report of Mr. Clinton's economic advisers.

The closest match to the current disaster may be the 1990 Gulf War after Iraq invaded Kuwait. A recession had started a month before the US and its allies entered the conflict. The war likely worsened the slump, which lasted to March 1991.

This year, according to official statistics, the economy was growing at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter - barely positive. Statistical revisions later could easily turn that into a slightly negative number, notes Zarnowitz.

With the impact of the twin towers disaster, the economy could shrink by 0.2 percent in the current quarter and 1.8 percent next quarter, predicts Cynthia Latta of DRI-WEFA, an economic consulting firm in Lexington, Mass.

As in 1990, the US economy today has been struggling. Further, key economies abroad in Europe, Japan, and southeast Asia have slowed.

Nor is it known what the US "war" against terrorism means in real terms. Economists don't know the extent of future US operations. "This is a process, not a single event," Zarnowitz says.

Nonetheless, at this time, economists are counting on the monetary ease of the Federal Reserve and extra spending or tax cuts by Washington to help lift the economy out of its doldrums.

"The fiscal landscape has changed," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

Congress has already allocated $40 billion to alleviate the damage done in New York. Defense spending will be raised. The airlines may get a rescue package.

More tax cuts seem likely. Cuts under discussion include a lower capital-gains tax rate, investment tax credits, and a tax rebate to those whose incomes were so low they didn't benefit from this summer's tax rebates.

"All the stops are out," says Mr. Kasriel of Northern Trust.

He expects short-term interest rates to be trimmed another 0.75 percentage points this year.

The lockbox that was intended to protect the surplus in Social Security revenues has been opened. "The days of budget surplus are behind us," says Mr. Rubin of CIBC.

The nation's money supply, the fuel for economic activity, has been growing at a rapid 9 percent rate in the past year, by one common measurement.

"We are pouring in a lot of money," says Kasriel, somewhat fearful that the nation faces more inflation in the future.

"A big unknown is how quickly people come out of their cocoon and start spending," he adds. Another incident of sabotage, for example, could keep consumers away from public places for an extended period.

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