How Democrats plan to win Dixie

And when he talks to constituents about education, it's not in the script of a policy wonk. What makes education an issue that unites people across his diverse district is that it's about hope. It's about moving up in the world, and it's deeply personal.

His message is the same, whether talking to businessmen or tobacco farmers worried about when the buyout check is coming: The key to the future is learning. Raised in deep rural North Carolina, he recalls watching the first electric poles go up in the late 1950s, getting up at 3 a.m. to milk the cow, and haul tobacco out of the barn, working two jobs for two years to pay for the first semester at a local junior college, and then fighting for a basketball scholarship to stay there.

It's an experience that he shares with lifelong constituents, as well as newcomers to the district, whether migrant laborers hoping to settle down in a construction or service job, or high-tech workers in the Research Triangle. In recent years, his district has become the second largest pharmaceutical area in the country.

People, meanwhile, have flocked to the state. Population rose 12 percent in the 1980s and 22 percent in the 1990s. And most of these new residents come to the state without a strong party ties.

Independent is at the "top" of the preference list for newcomers, says Harrison Hickman, a Washington-based Democratic pollster who works with North Carolina candidates.

"Instead of a realignment, it's more of a dealignment. In a lot of elections, either party will be able to win," Mr. Hickman says. "There's no question Democrats can win ... but it all depends on who the candidates are."

Democrats are looking for candidates with enough deep local roots to offset the negative associations many conservatives still have with the national Democratic Party.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, for example, describes herself as "a farm girl who has a high-tech job."

She announced her candidacy for US Senate even before Mr. Helms announced his retirement last week. Ms. Marshall has an impressive track record, having beaten NASCAR racing legend and GOP candidate Richard Petty in her 1996 state race. Like Etheridge, she constantly emphasizes the importance of education and high expectations.

One of the wild cards in the region is how a rapidly growing Hispanic population will settle into political life. Both parties are beginning to court this state's 6 percent Hispanic population. In recent months, both Republicans and Democrats have organized political clubs for Hispanics, and state Democrats are about to vote on making Hispanics a part of party leadership.

Democrats say Hispanic voters will respond to their focus on education, immigration, and ensuring access to government services. Party volunteer and bank manager Tanya Riemer works with new Hispanic residents to help them understand financial services.

"Hispanic candidates? I definitely see it very soon," she says.

But this is ground Republicans are not prepared to concede.

"From the standpoint of issues, we feel we can connect with the Hispanic population, especially with George Bush in the White House," says state Republican chairman Bill Cobey. "We're feeling very upbeat."

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