Washington as reluctant referee

The Middle East conflict is offering clear insight into the Bush administration's new tack of reluctant diplomacy - the cardinal rule of which is to intervene only when the ability to achieve something looks certain.

The new modus operandi is: Save the big diplomatic guns for when they can have an impact. Otherwise, avoid debilitating embarrassment internationally and at home. In this vision, diplomatic prestige is a precious commodity that can be squandered, not an unlimited resource that grows with wide use.

The recent flare-up of violence among Israelis and Palestinians is putting this approach to the test.

By responding in a lower-profile manner than President Clinton, the Bush administration policy is more narrowly tuning intervention to strategic interests and political realities. With neither regional instability nor international oil supplies threatened by the conflict, the Bush approach is garnering support in the US and is likely to continue. This week's two-day occupation by Israel of Beit Jala, an area under Palestinian autonomy, makes a return to peace talks even more distant, observers say. It will likely take a further ratcheting up of violence - or an unexpected shift from either side's entrenched position - for the US to return to a high-profile role.

Administration officials "don't want to get involved in a way that could embarrass them," says Shibley Telhami, a Mideast expert at the University of Maryland. And the kind of regional pressures that could force the US to intervene are so far not surfacing.

"The US has faith that Arab governments will act in their own interest and not let [public reaction to Isreali actions] get out of hand," says Mr. Telhami. He adds: "I don't see the escalation affecting the oil market."

With the streets and opinion polls suggesting overwhelming support in both the Israeli and Palestinian publics for violent measures against one another, now is not the time for stronger intervention, say officials and observers supportive of the administration's approach.

"When the conflict is ripe for settlement, intervention becomes much more effective," says Raymond Tanter, a security specialist in the Reagan administration and now a Middle East expert at the University of Michigan. "People have gotten used to thinking the United States is indispensable, but that's not true in the Middle East. Right now the US would only be squandering the currency of its reputation."

The State Department said Tuesday that while the US remains active in seeking a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, it is up to those two parties to take the first steps. "We can urge ... but the parties themselves have to start down that road," said Richard Boucher, State Department spokesman.

State officials say that although they can understand "confusion" that might have resulted from the Bush administration's approach, which contrasts with the Clinton administration's high-profile involvement, they insist the new approach is potentially more effective.

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