Jockeying, speculation begin over who will rule China

In this coastal town, where party apparatchiks escape sweltering Beijing each August, the political heat is on.

Quietly, decisions about who will run the world's most populous nation are being made.

Next year, communist China's leadership is expected to undergo dramatic change - to a "fourth generation" of rulers, China's "baby boomers," whose political and formative experiences were shaped by the bitter 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.

As the black sedans glide into guarded villas where conclaves are being held here, the cicadas buzz and the question looms: Will China's transition go smoothly, or will struggles among the old guard destabilize a party worried about its legitimacy?

In this country of 1.3 billion, whose size and economic dynamism increasingly make it the dominant force in Asia, no clear rules govern succession. Rather, new leaders emerge by elaborate agreement, made in strict secrecy by a set of elder cadres.

After Chairman Mao's 27-year tenure, a consensus emerged against such long terms in power.

The new leadership is expected to be announced after the 16th Communist Party Congress convenes next year.

"What's happening in Beidaihe is 'the meeting before the meeting,' " says one Chinese official. "A lot is being decided."

By some estimates, more than half of China's top spots will change under a rule that, according to one official, "strongly suggests" that 70 is a retirement age. This includes the senior governing bodies: the all-powerful seven-member Standing Committee, the 17-member Politburo, and the policy-setting 235-member Communist Party Congress.

By all accounts, President Jiang Zemin will likely step down next year.

Mr. Jiang's successor seems certain to be the relatively youthful Vice President Hu Jintao. Mr. Hu, who has a reputation for being uncorrupted, went from being deputy construction chief in humble Gansu province to being tapped for high office in 1992 by revered reformer Deng Xiaoping, who once famously said: "Hu is not bad."

Hu has stayed out of the public eye for more than a decade and is virtually unknown outside party circles. Western observers say much depends on how quickly he can emerge from the shroud imposed on heir apparents and consolidate power within the top echelons.

The air is thick with schemes, and counterschemes, and speculation.

"I might make a guess two days before the [February] Congress, but even that is a guess," says a professor at Beijing University.

Two main questions surround China's succession: First, what role behind the scenes will current leader Jiang seek for himself?

Second, who will be on the Standing Committee? This is the body of seven leaders, who also hold roles such as premier or president, and govern China by consensus through votes on what amounts to an executive board.

Jiang, first considered in 1992 to be a transitional figure, has proved his staying power as a political coalition builder. He is known to seek a role like that of Deng, his predecessor, who ruled China "behind the curtain," as the phrase goes, until nearly 1998.

Jiang, the "third generation" leader, would like his legacy to enter the pantheon of modern China along with Mao and Deng.

Jiang is known to want to retain his post as head of the powerful Central Military Commission, and to have access, directly or indirectly, to the Standing Committee. Party organs are emphasizing Jiang's theoretical contribution to Chinese political thought, known as Jiang's "Three Represents." The concepts are an effort to make the party connect more with the people in the midst of market reforms, and to make Jiang the central architect of that new alignment. (Mao and Deng both left socio-political theories widely studied by Chinese students.)

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