Zimbabwe refugee crisis looms

While the South African government insists that a refugee crisis remains a remote possibility, they don't want to be caught unprepared, should thousands of displaced Zimbabweans arrive at the border empty-handed. "The situation hasn't yet gotten out of hand. There are no panic buttons yet," says Leslie Mashokwe, a spokesman for the Department of Home Affairs. "But we are making plans, should there be a need for us to step-up."

Mr. Cornwell predicts refugee inflow will grow as Christmas nears. "The wheat shortage is starting to hit now. That affects the people in the towns. In the countryside, it's maize. Once that is seen to be in severe shortage, people may decide to vote with their feet."

In recent weeks, the Mugabe government has intensified the pressure on whites and political opponents. Twenty-one white Zimbabwean farmers, from the area near the northern city of Chinhoyi, were arrested by Zimbabwean police, along with a number of local reporters who had implicated police in farm invasions and looting in the area.

Those who succeed in passing through the porous border fence into South Africa, join an estimated 4 million illegal immigrants already living here. Illegals are blamed by many South Africans for stealing jobs and contributing to the high unemployment rate.

The troubles in Zimbabwe have also been blamed for South Africa's recent currency troubles. Over the past week, the rand fell to its all-time low against both the dollar and the pound and many believe that investor fears about the situation in Zimbabwe has contributed substantially to this decline.

Nico Czypionka, chief economist of SG Securities, says the currency devaluation is largely about perception and the fear that the situation in Zimbabwe is merely a precursor to unrest elsewhere in the region.

Conscious of this perception, Southern African leaders have hardened their stances toward Zimbabwe. Last week, South African Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni became the first high-ranking South African official to criticize Zimbabwe when he publicly blamed instability there for the current slide in the value of the rand.

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who has faced heavy criticism for his "quiet diplomacy," recently told the BBC that serious steps must be taken to avoid an economic meltdown in Zimbabwe. And when South Africa faced its own land crises in early July of this year, the government moved swiftly to evict land invaders, promising that no Zimbabwe-style land situation would develop in South Africa.

But Mr. Czypionka says that in order to restore investor confidence, more must be done to distance the two countries. "South Africa could turn the light switch off in Zimbabwe. And I think it should. It should give Zimbabwe an ultimatum."

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